Hamas condemned the U.S. decision to veto a UN Security Council resolution on June 4, 2025, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
The terror organization also rejected the proposal presented by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff for a hostage deal and ceasefire agreement.
Hamas has been encouraged by the high number of Israeli casualties in Gaza over the past week and by the continued activity of its military wing.
According to assessments by Israeli security sources based on Hamas-affiliated platforms and social media, Hamas’s military wing has heavily booby-trapped and fortified large areas of the Strip with explosive devices, significantly complicating IDF efforts to advance and capture further territory.
Despite its continued fighting in Gaza, Hamas is experiencing the gravest strategic crisis since its establishment.
Between its ambiguous stance in negotiations and growing regional and international pressure, a critical question emerges: What is Hamas’s strategy, and is there still a way out that doesn’t involve surrender or total war?
Hamas argues that Israel maintains rigid positions and enjoys unconditional American support for continuing the war, aimed at eliminating Hamas’s rule and military power. From Hamas’s perspective, the U.S.-led negotiation efforts by Witkoff are merely a smokescreen intended to buy time for the Netanyahu government to achieve its wartime objectives, primarily the dismantling of Hamas.
Senior security officials say Hamas’s strategy is to hold its ground and maintain its arms, even at a heavy cost to the population of Gaza.
On the ground, the war has led to severe human and material losses. Many in Gaza describe the situation as a “war of annihilation” being waged by Israel.
Hamas’s political and military infrastructure has also been significantly weakened.
Israel has begun establishing buffer zones, distributing aid through the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), and encouraging the formation of alternative Palestinian entities for local cooperation – such as the militia led by Yasser Abu Shabab in Rafah – signaling a potential structural shift in Gaza’s governance.
Given the dire conditions and the elimination of much of Hamas’s military leadership, questions are growing within the organization about who now leads the movement, who is authorized to negotiate on its behalf, and who ultimately makes the decisions.
Analysis of Hamas’s conduct on both military and political fronts reveals that its core goal is currently survival at all costs.
Hamas is trying to buy time and is banking on pressure from mediators to eventually shift the American position, much like what occurred with the Syrian regime under Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, which was rehabilitated despite its jihadist Islamist background.
Hamas is also relying on increasing public and international pressure on Israel and is encouraged by the UK, France, and Saudi Arabia’s initial efforts to advance recognition of a Palestinian state, although the upcoming conference will now weaken the scope of its ambition, according to diplomats. They will not recognize Palestine, but will instead focus on formulating steps in the direction of that goal.
Hamas is also encouraged by symbolic steps like boycotts from Spain, Ireland, and several Latin American countries.
However, senior Israeli security officials believe Hamas’s strategy is flawed and misreads Israel’s intentions.
According to them, time is not on Hamas’s side. Israel’s political leadership is determined to militarily defeat Hamas, and despite some disagreements, the Trump administration is offering unwavering support for Israel.
This administration is still at the beginning of its term, and its support is expected to be long-term. The future of Israel’s right-wing government is also still undecided, and it is too early to write it off.
Early elections for the Knesset remain uncertain. Even among Israel’s allies who are critical of its conduct in the war, there is a broad consensus that Hamas is a terrorist organization that must be removed from the equation.
Unlike the Syrian regime led by al-Jolani, Hamas is viewed by both Israel and the West as directly responsible for the October 7, 2023, massacre in Israeli communities near Gaza – making it exceedingly difficult to reintegrate the organization into the international arena.
Hamas is currently pursuing two main paths: continuing direct negotiations with the Trump administration in hopes of shifting its stance, and fighting to the end in Gaza – true to its identity as a jihadist terrorist group. A senior Hamas terrorist made it clear that the organization “will not raise a white flag” and will not surrender to Israel. The terror organization continues to operate in a state of denial. Ultimately, the hostages it holds are not likely to save it from the IDF.
Israeli patience is wearing thin, and military pressure on Hamas in Gaza is expected to intensify in the coming week.
As of now, no regional or international proposal exists that could change Hamas’s current situation or generate a new diplomatic dynamic that would help resolve Gaza’s deadlock. Hamas’s ostensible willingness to hand over governance to a local committee is not serious; it insists on retaining its weapons in order to continue controlling Gaza from behind the scenes.
