Summary
Despite a ceasefire declared in late June, tensions between Israel and Iran remain high, with both nations preparing for renewed conflict under a fragile framework of mutual deterrence. Israel is accelerating its missile defense programs and continuing covert operations, while Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions, signaling potential retaliation for past Israeli strikes. Both sides are engaged in strategic military planning, and intelligence suggests Iran may resort to a surprise attack, possibly through regional proxies, if conditions are favorable. The absence of a formal agreement or oversight mechanism leaves the region on edge, with a single incident potentially triggering a new round of war.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, declared at the end of June, has not eased tensions between the two nations. On the contrary, military preparations continue beneath the surface, and the entire region sits atop a powder keg that could explode at any moment.
In both Jerusalem and Tehran, officials speak of a “new phase” in the confrontation – one of fragile mutual deterrence, with its timeline influenced by regional and international developments.
While Israel strengthens its defense systems and accelerates production of its Arrow missiles, Iran is rebuilding its forces. It makes it clear that it will not abandon its nuclear program – even at the cost of another military clash.
Senior Israeli defense officials report that Iran is in advanced talks to procure air defense systems and fighter jets from China in preparation for the next round of fighting with Israel.
They add that Iran is planning a preemptive surprise strike on Israel as retaliation for the Israeli surprise attack carried out on June 13.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir stated on July 20 that the latest confrontation with Iran was merely one phase in a prolonged campaign. According to him, “We are now entering a new chapter based on the achievements of the operation – we disrupted Iran’s nuclear and missile programs – and we must remain vigilant.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz echoed Zamir’s remarks, warning on July 22 that there is a high likelihood of renewed fighting.
During a strategic assessment with senior IDF officials, a decision was made to formulate a strategic plan to prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear program.
As part of this, Israel will accelerate production of Arrow missiles and increase the readiness of its air defense systems, including Iron Dome and David’s Sling.
Tehran, too, is sending clear signals. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that “Iran will not retreat from its nuclear program” and that “any Israeli attack will be met with painful retaliation targeting central Israel.”
In an interview with Al-Jazeera on July 22, Pezeshkian added that Tehran does not seek war but will not hesitate to defend itself.
He reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes and complies with international law.
Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi told Fox News on July 22 that Iran would not abandon uranium enrichment, despite the damage caused to its nuclear infrastructure by U.S. strikes in June.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who spearheaded the mediation efforts for the ceasefire, warned on July 22 that if Iran resumes its nuclear activities, the United States will not hesitate to strike Iranian nuclear facilities once again.
His warning came just hours after Arakchi’s statement, reinforcing the U.S. stance that any renewal of Iran’s nuclear program is a red line.
The latest round of conflict between Israel and Iran lasted only 12 days – from June 13 to June 24 – but involved unusually extensive military operations.
Israel struck nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, targeted ballistic missile production facilities, and assassinated senior IRGC officials and nuclear scientists.
Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles and drone attacks targeting sensitive Israeli sites, including power stations, military bases, and intelligence facilities.
Although the United States brokered the ceasefire, it was not accompanied by any formal political agreement or oversight mechanism, making it a temporary pause rather than a long-term resolution.
Israeli political leaders believe the confrontation with Iran is a prolonged conflict currently in a transitional stage.
Iran, having suffered significant losses and humiliation, is nursing its wounds and seeking revenge.
According to them, Iran’s primary objective now is to strike back at Israel at a time of its choosing, likely through a surprise attack.
Senior Israeli defense officials view the current ceasefire as a temporary constraint forced on both sides.
They stress that Israel is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and will continue its policy of targeted assassinations, strikes on strategic sites, and diplomatic pressure.
During the current ceasefire, a series of mysterious explosions and fires occurred at infrastructure and buildings across Iran.
On July 23, senior Iranian officials told The New York Times that they believe Israel was behind these incidents.
As of now, the ceasefire remains fragile. There is no political or diplomatic framework to ensure its stability.
There are no official channels, no oversight mechanism, and no mutual trust. Each side is preparing for the next round, and a single misstep – such as the assassination of a senior figure or a cyberattack – could reignite the flames of war.
According to Israeli intelligence, the Mossad’s covert activity in Iran continues, and Israel is preparing to thwart any potential Iranian attack.
Defense Establishment Assessment
One current assessment within Israel’s defense establishment is that in any future scenario, Iran will prefer to attack Israel through its regional proxies – namely, the Houthis in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon, and Shiite militias in Iraq.
Direct Iranian action will likely occur only if the regime feels its survival is at risk.
Israeli intelligence officials believe Iran is still in the process of rebuilding its military capabilities following the recent conflict and is not eager to engage in a full-scale war with Israel.
According to their assessment, Iran would launch a surprise strike on Israel only if it sees a window of opportunity – when Israel is diplomatically isolated, heavily engaged in other arenas, and when its deterrence has significantly eroded.
Iran’s current threats may be primarily aimed at deterring Israel and boosting domestic morale.
Still, Iran is undoubtedly capable of launching a rapid barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles at sensitive sites in Israel, as it did in April 2024.
A potential Iranian surprise attack on Israel might occur under the following conditions:
- A freeze or weakness in U.S. foreign policy (e.g., during an American election season).
- Signs of deep internal division within Israel (political or security crisis).
- Iranian confidence in its ability to achieve a decisive military victory and restore deterrence.
Such a move would be perilous for Iran, as Israel would respond with overwhelming force on Iranian territory.
An Israeli counterattack would likely result in Iran’s international isolation. Nonetheless, Iran may gamble on such an attack to restore its damaged national pride and strengthen its deterrence capabilities.
