The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly shaped by the relationships between various state and non-state actors. Key players like Qatar and Turkey, fueled by their Muslim Brotherhood doctrine, have positioned themselves as supporters of certain Islamist movements, including the Houthis in Yemen, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in Sudan. These alliances threaten regional security and stability, particularly concerning the ongoing conflict in the Horn of Africa, with deepening crises particularly in Sudan and Somalia.
Qatar’s Influence and Islamist Movements
Qatar has cultivated relationships with a range of Islamist groups, often promoting political Islam as a counter-narrative to authoritarian regimes in the region. Support for the Houthi movement in Yemen, which has engaged in a prolonged conflict against the Saudi-led coalition, illustrates this approach. Qatar’s backing often includes financial support, diplomatic recognition, and media outlets like Al-Jazeera that amplify their narratives.
In Somalia, Qatar’s involvement with Al-Shabaab has been more complex. While the group is classified as a terrorist organization, Qatar has also been known to support various factions within the Somali government, aiming to stabilize the region while simultaneously countering the influence of rival groups. This dual approach complicates the local political landscape and often exacerbates existing tensions.
Turkey’s Role in Supporting Extremist Groups
Turkey has emerged as a key ally of Qatar in supporting various Islamist movements. Its military and logistical support often includes advanced weaponry and training, further empowering groups like the Houthis and Al-Shabaab. Turkey’s strategic interests in these regions align with its broader ambitions to project power and influence in the Islamic world.
In Yemen, Turkey has provided humanitarian assistance and military supplies to the Houthis, viewing their struggle as part of a broader resistance against Saudi hegemony in the region. Similarly, in Somalia, Turkey has invested heavily in the Somali National Army and infrastructure projects, while also reportedly providing support to factions aligned with Al-Shabaab, complicating the fight against terrorism.
The Muslim Brotherhood Connection
Both Qatar and Turkey have historically supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots across the Arab world, viewing them as legitimate political actors. This alignment has fostered a network of Islamist groups that share ideologies and goals, leading to increased collaboration among them. In Sudan, the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood has been particularly significant, with factions vying for power amid the ongoing conflict.
The Brotherhood’s legacy in Sudan dates back decades, and its members have played crucial roles in various governments. However, the current conflict between the Islamist SAF and the secular Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has further divided the political landscape. Qatar and Turkey’s support for Islamist factions complicates the situation, as these groups often have competing interests and allegiances.
Egypt’s fragile domestic situation is often overlooked. While former President Mohammed Morsi only enjoyed limited rule, nearly 60 percent of Egypt’s 110 million people are known to support the Muslim Brotherhood. This influences the Al-Sisi government’s relationship with Hamas.
The Situation in Sudan
Sudan is currently mired in conflict, primarily between the Islamist SAF and secular RSF, both of which have historical ties to Islamist movements, including the Muslim Brotherhood. The ongoing violence has created a humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and in need of assistance. Foreign involvement, particularly from Qatar and Turkey, adds layers of complexity to the conflict.
Qatar’s financial support for various factions has sometimes been perceived as an attempt to maintain influence over Sudan’s transitional government. Meanwhile, Turkey’s military assistance and political backing have bolstered certain groups, further exacerbating divisions. This foreign involvement raises questions about the long-term stability of Sudan and the potential for a resolution to the conflict.
The Domino Effect
Somalia’s Al-Shabaab is sponsored by Qatari funds, equipped with Turkish weapons, and trained on the ground by the Iranians – and they are about to take over Somalia; Mogadishu is in danger of falling within a matter of weeks. If this happens, Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group, will control a major Muslim majority African country. And Eritrea may soon follow suit.
Neighboring Djibouti, whose strategic position on the Red Sea, is a mixture of the highest strategic importance and many interests – commercial, intelligence, and military – by the great powers from the West to the East, such as Russia and China.
If Somalia and Eritrea fall to the extremists, Ethiopia will be dangerously exposed and left to fend for itself. Ethiopia represents the last country standing to fight for security and stability in the Horn of Africa.
Western sanctions must be lifted from Ethiopia and it must be equipped financially and militarily to lead the fight against the Islamists. Israel, too, needs to support them with intelligence as part of a strategic alliance between Addis Ababa, Jerusalem, and Washington.
In the Sudan, there is no difference between the SAF and Sudanese Army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a direct descendant of Sudan’s pro-terror leader Omar al-Bashir. These leaders are Muslim Brotherhood to the core and are being financed today by Qatar, Turkey, Iran. Egypt, for its reasons, has acceded to this arrangement.
The Islamist SAF is in a bitter battle with the RSF which is doing its best to prevent Sudan from falling to the Muslim Brotherhood. They recognize what will happen to Sudan if the country falls to the Islamists.
Egypt is the next potential powder keg. Once the Muslim Brotherhood controls Sudan and they push into Egypt from the south, the Brotherhood in Egypt will join with the Brotherhood in Khartoum. It is not far-fetched to assess that this dangerous development could result in Al-Shabaab and the Brotherhood controlling Egypt with the full arsenal of the Egyptian military, threatening Israel in the South. For its part, Turkey will find its way through Syria and threaten Israel from the north, sandwiching the Jewish state between Egypt and Turkey. This constitutes a strategic and even existential threat to Israel’s future.
Conclusion
The interplay of influence among Qatar, Turkey, and various Islamist groups in Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan underscores the complexity of these growing asymmetric subversion in the Red Sea and wider Middle East region. As foreign powers support these movements, they not only shape local dynamics but also contribute to ongoing instability. The situation in Sudan, characterized by its multifaceted conflicts and competing interests, reflects the broader challenges confronting the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Moving forward, a concerted international effort will be essential to address the root causes of these conflicts and foster genuine pathways to stability, security, and peace.
