An ingenious and unprecedented attack against thousands of operatives of the Hizbullah terrorist organization using exploding pagers was carried out in a dozen Hizbullah centers in Lebanon. Israel is preparing for the organization’s revenge response.
The United States is working through diplomatic channels to prevent regional escalation. Iran will determine the nature of Hizbullah’s response. The successful operation does not currently change Israel’s strategic situation.
Hizbullah admits that the “pager attack” attributed to Israel was exceptional and proves intelligence and technological superiority.
The organization claimed, through a journalist close to it, that Israel changed the rules of the game because it harmed civilians and that we are facing a “new situation.”
On September 18, 2024, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Hizbullah’s mouthpiece, published a front-page headline proclaiming: “Killing without borders.”
An article written by senior journalist Ibrahim al-Amin, a close associate of Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, admits that Israel carried out an “extraordinary” military operation against Hizbullah, taking advantage of its intelligence and technological advantage. He claimed that more than 3,000 Hizbullah fighters and Lebanese civilians were wounded in the Israeli operation.
“This is an unprecedented crime; there is nothing to talk about from today about order and solutions,” writes al-Amin, “The goal of the operation to subdue Hizbullah and prevent it from assisting the Gaza Strip has not been achieved.” Al-Amin accused Israel of carrying out an attack, knowing in advance it would kill civilians. The beepers exploded “in homes, offices, and cars,” he claimed. Israel violated the rules of the game that prohibit the killing of civilians and attacks on civilian facilities.
Ibrahim al-Amin wrote that Hizbullah would react coolly to the Israeli attack, but Israel knows full well that it pushed Hizbullah out of the rules of the game that prevailed over the past year, so “we are in a new situation.”
While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the operation, the Middle East widely believes it to be behind the strike, which targeted thousands of Hizbullah operatives.
The United States is working diplomatically to prevent regional escalation, though Iran is expected to play a critical role in determining the nature of Hizbullah’s response.
Despite the operation’s success, Israel’s broader strategic situation remains unchanged.
A New Definition of “Sleeper Cells”
The attack involved the remote detonation of thousands of pagers that had been smuggled into Lebanon and Syria and were widely distributed to Hizbullah’s officers and allies.
These devices, believed to have been rigged with explosives, killed 11 people and injured approximately 4,000, with 10 percent of them injured seriously, according to Lebanese government figures.
Hizbullah blamed Israel for the attack, vowing harsh retaliation. Israeli security sources believe that Hizbullah is preparing for a significant military response, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are taking measures accordingly.
Reports from Lebanon indicate that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Moujtaba Amani, was injured, and the son of Hizbullah MP Ali Amar was killed.
Fire and Brimstone throughout Lebanon
Analysts suggest that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, will determine the scope of Hizbullah’s retaliation, wary of triggering a broader regional conflict. Since October 7, Iran has taken care to avoid escalating tensions, fearing an Israeli strike on its oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities.
Tehran is also mindful of U.S. domestic politics, not wanting to undermine Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign, particularly with the prospect of a Donald Trump return looming.
This operation has severely damaged Hizbullah’s standing, humiliating its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who is now under pressure to restore the group’s tarnished image.
The Israeli strike highlights both the intelligence penetration of Hizbullah and the ingenuity of Israeli operations, reportedly involving the smuggling of foreign-made pagers that were secretly fitted with explosives.
This successful strike temporarily crippled Hizbullah’s command and control infrastructure, dealing a significant blow to its operational capacity and morale.
Lebanon, already struggling economically, now faces the threat of further conflict, with civilians fearing an all-out war that could devastate the country.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant regularly consult defense officials to prepare for Hizbullah’s retaliation.
Some Israeli security officials have suggested that Israel should strike preemptively if intelligence reveals preparations for an attack, targeting Hizbullah’s rocket, missile, and UAV stockpiles. They argue that Israel should capitalize on this success by further degrading Hizbullah’s capabilities.
The United States has initiated discussions with Israel and is engaging in secret talks with Iran to prevent escalation.
The Biden administration, in particular, is concerned about destabilizing events that could impact the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
What Lies Ahead?
While the operation was a tactical success, it didn’t change Israel’s overall strategic position. Israel remains entangled with Hamas over hostages held in Gaza. Still, if the momentum can be maintained with a frontal assault on Hizbullah, there is a chance to push Hizbullah forces away from the northern border.
This could pave the way for a political settlement and allow the return of the tens of thousands of Israelis evacuated from northern towns.
The strike has bolstered Israel’s deterrence and has dealt a significant blow to Hizbullah’s morale, with direct ties to attacks the group had planned on Israeli soil.
Meanwhile, the Israel Security Agency announced on September 17 that it had foiled a Hizbullah terror plot to assassinate a former senior Israeli security official. Hizbullah succeeded in recent months to smuggle into Israel deadly Claymore mines, and at least one was detonated on a Galilee road. The ISA believes Unit 133, a Hizbullah group responsible for recruiting Palestinians to carry out attacks in Israel and the West Bank, was behind the attempt.
