- Israel has achieved exceptional military accomplishments in its brief campaign against Iran, but it is still too early to determine the implications of the heavy blows Iran sustained for the stability of its regime.
- Senior political officials estimate that as long as Ali Khamenei remains in power, he will not abandon Iran’s nuclear project.
- On the contrary, he may now attempt—covertly—to accelerate the production of a nuclear bomb and to resume the development of ballistic missiles.
After 12 days of fighting, U.S. President Donald Trump managed to enforce a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.
While Israel’s broader war in the Middle East against the Shiite axis and its proxies is far from over, most commentators in the Arab world already acknowledge that Israel has secured unprecedented achievements in this war with Iran. According to them, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded—thanks to the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites—in achieving a strategic gain that the IDF could not have attained on its own.
The Israeli attack significantly disrupted Iran’s nuclear program.
Senior security sources claim that Israel destroyed Iran’s main nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. However, the ultimate fate of approximately 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at 60% purity remains unclear. Iranian sources claim they managed to remove the enriched uranium from the sites before Israel’s attack.
Israeli security officials state that the joint Israeli-American aerial strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, combined with Mossad’s assassinations of 17 top Iranian nuclear scientists, have severely thwarted Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. This is not merely a tactical success but a major step toward neutralizing the existential threat Iran poses to Israel. That said, according to these officials, Iran still has about 80 nuclear scientists who survived the war and who constitute a significant reservoir of knowledge regarding the nuclear project.
Regarding the ballistic missile project, defense assessments suggest that Iran retains around 1,000 ballistic missiles and about 150 launchers. Israel succeeded in destroying hundreds of launchers and missile production facilities, including vital equipment essential for missile manufacturing.
The failure of the ayatollahs’ regime to defend its “Axis of Evil” allies and the severe damage suffered by Hizbullah underscore Tehran’s inability to protect even itself. This significant weakness diminishes not only Iran’s military power but also undermines the political and ideological legitimacy that sustains the Iranian regime.
According to senior security sources, the Iranian regime is no longer immune. They believe it will now face internal instability and a loss of its status as a regional power. Still, it is too early to assess the full impact of Israel’s strikes on the regime’s long-term stability.
Israel possesses some of the most advanced military and intelligence capabilities in the world, and it has now sent a clear message to every capital in the region: its long arm can reach anywhere.
Israel has successfully restored its deterrence power—which was severely damaged on October 7, 2023—to an unprecedented level. Its air defense system passed a major test in intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and UAVs.
Israel destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites and delayed Iran’s nuclear program by at least several years.
Prime Minister Netanyahu succeeded in persuading President Trump to enter the war and assist Israel in destroying Iran’s three most critical nuclear sites.
These are impressive and extraordinary achievements. Nevertheless, Iran is still capable of beginning to rebuild its nuclear program.
Despite recent events, Iran does not intend to give up its nuclear project—even if the current regime were to fall. That would not change the fundamental Iranian drive to possess nuclear technology. This aspiration is deeply rooted in Iran’s national vision and predates the Islamic Revolution—Shah Reza Pahlavi also pursued it prior to 1979.
Just hours after the ceasefire took effect, the Iranian regime announced that it had begun assessing the damage to its nuclear project in preparation for reconstruction.
On June 24, Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, announced that Iran is already evaluating the damage from the latest attacks and is planning to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure “in order to prevent a disruption in production and services.”
Security officials warn that it is indeed possible Iran transferred some of its enriched material and advanced centrifuges to other underground facilities capable of continuing uranium enrichment.
Senior political officials assess that Iran will return to the negotiating table in pursuit of a new nuclear agreement. However, there is no indication that it is willing to relinquish its core principle of enriching uranium on Iranian soil.
According to them, Khamenei views his continued rule as a major victory over Israel, and that is the narrative he will now attempt to market to the Iranian people.
They stress that as long as Khamenei remains in power, he will not abandon the Iranian nuclear project—and it is highly likely that, following the severe blows inflicted by Israel, he will now covertly attempt to accelerate nuclear bomb production and resume ballistic missile development.
