Summary
The U.S.-proposed plan, mediated by Thomas Barrack, seeks to disarm Hizbullah and Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon through a phased approach, requiring Israel to halt military operations and withdraw from Lebanese territory. The plan includes steps for Hizbullah’s disarmament and Lebanese army deployment, but faces strong opposition from Hizbullah, backed by Iran, and skepticism from Palestinian factions. Lebanese President Aoun insists on an Israeli and Syrian agreement, while Hizbullah’s refusal and threats of civil war risk derailing the initiative, prompting Barrack to seek a ceasefire to salvage the plan.
Recognizing the significant challenges facing the Lebanese government in disarming Hizbullah, compounded by the risks of renewed civil war or a potential takeover of state institutions by Hizbullah – reminiscent of the May 2008 events when the Shiite militia stormed Beirut and seized control – U.S. mediator Thomas Barrack proposed a phased, “step-by-step” plan to address the crisis. This plan aimed to place both Lebanon and Israel on equal footing, requiring cooperation from Israel despite its military victory over Hizbullah. This approach diverged from historical norms where the victor typically imposes terms on the defeated party.
The proposal sought to disarm all non-state armed groups, including Hizbullah, in exchange for Israel halting military operations and fully withdrawing from Lebanese territory, particularly from five strategic strongholds retained after the conflict. Additionally, it aimed to resolve the thirteen points of contention along the Israel-Lebanon border through permanent delineation. According to Lebanese and Arab media, the plan outlined the following phases:
Phase 1: The Lebanese government commits to fully disarming Hizbullah by year’s end. In response, Israel ceases all military activities – on land, sea, and air – within Lebanese territory.
Phase 2: Within 60 days, the Lebanese government begins implementing the disarmament plan and deploys Lebanese troops to the southern border. Concurrently, Israel starts withdrawing from key strategic positions in southern Lebanon.
Phase 3: Within 60 to 90 days, Hizbullah completes its military withdrawal south of the Litani River.
Final Phase: Between 90 and 120 days, Hizbullah dismantles its remaining heavy weaponry and military infrastructure, including missiles, drones, and command centers. Simultaneously, Israeli forces fully withdraw from Lebanese territory, and Lebanese security forces assume control over all regions.
Barrack presented this plan to Lebanese officials on June 19, 2025. On July 7, 2025, the Lebanese government formally responded. On August 7, 2025, the Lebanese cabinet, without the participation of five Shiite ministers, approved the plan’s objectives, directing the army to prepare a detailed disarmament strategy for all militias, including Hizbullah, to be finalized and implemented by year’s end.
Hizbullah strongly opposed the plan, with its leaders declaring they would not disarm (see Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, August 19, 2025, Jacques Neriah, Iran Backs Hizbullah in its Refusal to Disarm). This opposition sparked a smear campaign against Prime Minister Salam, labeled a “traitor” and “agent,” and Maronite Patriarch Al-Ra’i. In Beirut’s Dahiya district, portraits of Salam were defaced, and protests condemned the government’s decision. Hizbullah’s secretary-general warned that implementing the plan could dismantle Lebanon and pave the way for civil war. Iranian officials echoed this inflammatory rhetoric, amplifying tensions.
In response to this political “tsunami,” President Aoun sent his military adviser to meet with Shiite leaders, delivering a clear message: the Lebanese government would not proceed with Hizbullah’s disarmament unless Israel agreed to Phase 1. Aoun further stipulated that the plan required approval from both Israel and Syria, given border-related clauses, and threatened to withdraw Lebanon’s support if these conditions were not met.
Meanwhile, pursuant to an agreement between President Aoun and the Palestinian Authority chairman, the Lebanese government staged an operation in mid-June 2025 at the Bourj el-Barajneh Palestinian refugee camp. Lebanese army intelligence units, accompanied by a truck, collected sacks purportedly containing weapons. However, Hizbullah and Palestinian factions dismissed the event as a “masquerade” and a publicity stunt.
On August 18, 2025, Barrack met with Lebanese leaders, publicly stating that Lebanon had fulfilled its obligations and urging Israel to comply by halting military operations and withdrawing troops. Before traveling to Israel, Barrack met with Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal movement and parliament chairman, on August 24. According to Lebanese media, Berri proposed a 15-day ceasefire to de-escalate tensions. Barrack then met with Israel’s prime minister and officials before returning to Lebanon on August 26 to salvage the plan.
Hizbullah’s refusal to disarm until Israel fully withdraws and a collective defense strategy is agreed upon with the Lebanese government poses significant challenges. The U.S. team may opt for a pause to avoid pushing Lebanon into renewed internal conflict. Concessions framed as “Israeli compromises” are unlikely to persuade Hizbullah, potentially emboldening the militia to maintain its hardline stance.
