The race for the position of chairman of Hamas’s Political Bureau, which will be decided in internal elections of the Shura Council in the coming weeks, is focused on two central figures: Khalil al-Hayya, who currently serves as head of the Political Bureau in the Gaza Strip, and Khaled Mashal, who is defined as Hamas’s leader abroad.
Al-Hayya managed the Gaza Strip through years of intense confrontation, both as deputy chairman of Hamas and within the framework of the “Joint Administrative Council.” He handled the most sensitive issues, foremost among them negotiations with Israel, and oversaw the reconstruction of the movement’s administrative structure following a series of targeted assassinations carried out by Israel that significantly affected Hamas’s political and military leadership.
Senior security officials say that al-Hayya enjoys broad support in the Gaza Strip, from the “Military Council” of Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, as well as from Hamas operatives currently held in Israeli prisons.
He also enjoys considerable backing among Palestinians in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), largely due to his ties with Zaher al-Jabarin, the head of Hamas’s military wing in the area.
His standing within the military wing in Gaza is strong, and his close relations with commanders who have not been eliminated by Israel, most notably Izz ad-Din al-Haddad, are described as excellent, further reinforcing his political position.
During the war, al-Hayya lost three of his sons as well as several other family members. These personal losses contributed to solidifying his image and earned him the nickname “the father of the martyrs” in the Gaza Strip.
As for Mashal, Hamas’s leader abroad, he has returned to active involvement after years outside the core decision-making circle of the movement’s top leadership.
Despite a long history of influence and support within the Islamic world, his positions regarding the management of Palestinian affairs, particularly in the Gaza Strip, do not always align with those of other senior Hamas leaders.
Mashal is currently working to strengthen his candidacy for chairman of the Political Bureau through face-to-face meetings with Hamas leaders and by opening communication channels with supporters outside the movement.
Senior Israeli security officials say that the internal leadership elections are taking place at an extremely sensitive time and against a highly complex regional backdrop. Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and Iran all exert significant influence over the Palestinian arena, while the war in Gaza is currently under a ceasefire, alongside an Israeli threat to resume the fighting to dismantle Hamas’s military wing and its terrorist infrastructure.
Egypt prefers that Hamas’s leadership remain based in the Gaza Strip and views al-Hayya as its favored candidate for chairman of the Political Bureau.
Mashal, by contrast, is perceived in Cairo as operating under the considerable influence of the global Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt designates as a terrorist organization.
Turkey and Qatar are working to maintain ties with Hamas and to protect its leadership outside Gaza. They tend to favor Mashal over al-Hayya, though publicly they strive to project a semblance of balance.
Iran, the most important and sensitive external actor, continues to support Hamas’s military wing by providing funding and weapons, and it prefers al-Hayya over Mashal as chairman of the Political Bureau.
Al-Hayya’s relations with Iran’s Leader Ali Khamenei, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Hizbullah in Lebanon are described as excellent and further strengthen his position.
According to security sources, Iran is not attempting to directly influence the elections. Instead, its inclination is clearly to support the camp identified with “armed resistance,” which rejects compromises with Israel, while at the same time seeking to preserve unity within the movement.
Why Does Iran Support Khalil al-Hayya and What Are His Chances?
Iran views al-Hayya as a candidate who can ensure stronger coordination between Hamas’s military wing and the regional hubs of the “Islamic Resistance,” such as Hizbullah, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq, without triggering internal divisions within the movement.
Al-Hayya is considered a leader who is attentive to the military wing, enjoys a strong standing in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and possesses a record of personal and familial sacrifice that has granted him an authoritative image among Hamas supporters.
According to assessments by senior security officials, al-Hayya holds a significant advantage over Mashal within the Gaza Strip and among the movement’s military wing. He also enjoys substantial support in the West Bank and from regional actors such as Iran and Egypt.
Despite Mashal’s historical popularity in the Islamic world and beyond the region, the broad support al-Hayya receives within Hamas’s internal political and military systems, combined with his direct ties to Iran, significantly increase his chances of being elected chairman of the Political Bureau.
Ultimately, the final decision will depend on al-Hayya’s ability to play his cards wisely, leverage his internal support, and strike a balance with external influences to secure victory in the internal elections for the chairmanship of Hamas’s Political Bureau.
