Following the October 19, 2026, meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at Israel’s Ovda Air Base, senior Israeli security officials assess that Israel and the United States do not intend to attack Iran before next week’s Knesset elections, provided Iran does not attempt to strike Israel.
Hegseth made a secret visit to Israel, in part to meet American troops stationed at Ovda Air Base. The visit was kept under wraps until details were leaked, and it was considered to have significant strategic importance.
According to the security officials, the IDF is well prepared on all fronts, both defensively and offensively.
Iran is hesitant to attack Israel for fear of a powerful joint Israeli-American response targeting its energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities, as well as the possible elimination of its military and political leadership, headed by Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi.
The officials say the IDF has prepared all the operational plans required for a strike against Iran. However, it would launch a preemptive attack, on the orders of Israel’s political leadership, only if solid intelligence indicates that Iran is making operational preparations to attack Israel before the Knesset elections.
Senior Israeli political officials say strategic coordination between Israel and the United States is excellent and at the highest level, both regarding possible moves against Iran and Israeli assistance to Saudi Arabia in confronting the Houthis. According to these officials, the two countries are in full agreement on the need to bring down the Iranian regime.
Senior Israeli security officials assess that Iran’s leadership has yet to make a final decision on how to proceed. Iran is facing a severe economic crisis and growing international isolation, while fearing a forceful Israeli response.
Tehran may therefore rely on its regional proxies and focus on military measures it believes could drive up global oil prices, undermining President Trump’s election campaign ahead of the November 3 congressional elections.
Nevertheless, the possibility of unexpected escalation remains, particularly due to an Iranian miscalculation.
At present, provided Iran does not take any unexpected offensive action, senior Israeli officials assess that a large-scale joint Israeli-American military operation against the Iranian regime may take place only after the US elections on November 3 and before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3.
Senior Israeli political officials believe Trump would prefer to avoid a major military operation against Iran before the congressional elections if it were to drive up energy prices, be perceived as a failure, or result in American casualties. He may also need additional time to complete military preparations in the region.
According to Israeli political officials, Trump may increase pressure on Israel’s political system after the Knesset elections to form a national unity government. He would aim to secure broad political backing for possible action against the Iranian regime while simultaneously advancing the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
Israeli security officials say Iran seeks to exploit disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy prices to intensify political pressure on US President Donald Trump ahead of the congressional elections. Tehran sees the weeks before the vote as an opportunity to strengthen its bargaining position by capitalizing on American voters’ sensitivity to fuel prices and the cost of living.
Iran assesses that continued increases in energy prices could increase domestic pressure on the US administration as it grapples with economic and political challenges.
Israeli security officials assess that the coming weeks will be particularly sensitive, with each side seeking to improve its position without sliding into an all-out war.
Israel and the United States want to preserve their military freedom of action. At the same time, Iran may attempt to exploit the political sensitivities in the United States and concerns over rising energy prices to deter Washington from launching an attack.
This strategy, however, carries significant risks. A miscalculation by any party could bring the confrontation forward, before the political leaderships in Jerusalem and Washington reach the point at which they would prefer to act.
