- Senior political sources estimate that Israel will likely have to launch a large-scale operation in Iran in the coming months to thwart its increasingly accelerated ballistic missile program, a topic that will be discussed during Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Trump.
- The anticipated operation to weaken Hizbullah’s power is intended, among other objectives, to neutralize Hizbullah ahead of the planned strike on Iran.
The Wall Street Journal reported on December 12 that, last month, a special U.S. team intercepted a ship in the Indian Ocean bound from China to Iran carrying military equipment intended to help Iran rearm following damage sustained in Israeli and U.S. strikes in June.
Senior political sources note that Iran’s renewed ballistic missile production is of serious concern to both Israel and the United States, which are investing substantial intelligence resources to monitor developments in Iran and its collaboration with China, which is assisting in rebuilding Iran’s missile industry damaged during the conflict.
This issue will be central to Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump in Florida at the end of the month. According to the sources, Israel cannot accept the fact that Iran is attempting to create a new existential threat to the country after the destruction of its nuclear sites.
Therefore, Israel will likely have to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s ballistic missile production sites and storage facilities in the coming months.
According to senior security officials, a preliminary stage of this strike will be a major military operation to weaken Hizbullah’s power in order to prevent its military buildup, remove the threat to northern Israeli communities, and, crucially, neutralize its ability to assist Iran when Israel attacks the missile facilities.
Consequently, the Israeli security establishment is urging political authorities to move soon with the operation to weaken Hizbullah.
The U.S. ultimatum to the Lebanese government to disarm Hizbullah will expire at the end of the month, and Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to receive the final green light during his upcoming meeting with President Trump at the end of December.
Senior political sources say the U.S. administration fully understands and supports Israel’s position, partly because weakening Hizbullah could also facilitate progress in political relations with the Lebanese government.
Senior security sources note that Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, is expected to visit Israel to hold discussions with political and security officials ahead of the operation to weaken Hizbullah.
Yousef Raji, Lebanon’s foreign minister, said in a Lebanese television interview on December 12 that Lebanon has received warnings about a potential large-scale Israeli operation against the country.
“We have received warnings from Arab and international sources that Israel is preparing for a major military operation against Lebanon,” he said.
He emphasized that “Hizbullah’s arsenal has proven ineffective both in supporting Gaza and in defending Lebanon, even leading to the return of Israeli occupation.”
Raji added, “The Lebanese state maintains a dialogue with Hizbullah in an attempt to convince it to disarm, but it refuses.” He clarified that “the meetings of the mechanism committee do not indicate that we are engaged in traditional negotiations with Israel, and our goal is to return to the ceasefire agreement, while a peace agreement remains distant for now.”
Regarding Iran’s role in Lebanon, the foreign minister said, “Iran’s role in Lebanon and the region is extremely negative, and Tehran’s policies are a source of instability.” He added, “We have a problem with Iran and are open to dialogue on the condition that it stops interfering in our internal affairs,” and stressed that Iran “must cease funding an illegal organization in Lebanon.”
Meanwhile, Hizbullah shows no signs of being pressured by the expected Israeli strike.
Senior security officials report that the organization is hiding long-range rockets, drones, and other new aerial systems in newly-built underground warehouses in the Al-Dahiya district of Beirut and the Beqaa Valley.
In southern Lebanon, Hizbullah continues to build new military infrastructure despite daily Israeli airstrikes on its targets.
IDF Northern Command sources warn that Hizbullah’s “Radwan” forces are rebuilding their strength in southern Lebanon and that there is an increase in attempts by Hizbullah operatives, posing as Lebanese farmers, to approach IDF positions to gather intelligence.
This week, U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus is scheduled to visit the area to participate in another meeting of the ceasefire monitoring committee in Naqoura.
However, Israeli political authorities assess that the operation to weaken Hizbullah is inevitable and will commence soon.
