The defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, known as the “Mecca Agreement,” is increasingly being viewed in Israel not as yet another diplomatic arrangement between Muslim states, but as a strategic development that could gradually alter the balance of power in the Middle East, according to senior Israeli political officials.
According to these officials, Israel has already begun formulating a response through a series of measures: strengthening security and intelligence ties with India vis-à-vis Pakistan; deepening its partnership with Greece and Cyprus in response to Turkey; and seeking to exploit differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in an effort to contain Riyadh’s growing regional influence.
However, Jerusalem’s primary concern is that the new trilateral defense alliance could become the nucleus of a broader regional framework, eventually joined by Egypt and additional Arab and Muslim states.
In such a scenario, Israel could find itself facing an independent regional bloc with significant military, economic and strategic capabilities, one that does not necessarily rely on the United States and does not necessarily regard Israel’s military superiority as a regional asset.
“This is the development that currently concerns Israeli decision-makers,” a senior Israeli political official said.
The Israeli concern is prompting the political establishment to consider a network of countervailing alliances that could balance the emerging Sunni axis.
Concerning Pakistan, Israel is seeking to deepen security, intelligence and economic cooperation with India.
In response to Turkey, Israel is looking to strengthen its strategic partnership with Greece and Cyprus, which in recent years has become one of the main pillars of Israel’s position in the eastern Mediterranean.
Toward Saudi Arabia, Jerusalem is seeking to preserve its relationship with the United Arab Emirates and leverage differences between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh to prevent the emergence of a broader Saudi-Turkish front.
A senior Israeli political official said that the Iran-led Shiite “axis of resistance” has weakened while the Sunni axis is growing stronger.
Israel, he argued, therefore needs to respond by developing alternative alliances with Greece and Cyprus, as well as with India and the UAE.
Israel, he added, must build a network of strategic partnerships around itself to prevent a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.
Senior Israeli officials fear that the Mecca Agreement could gradually evolve into an independent regional security architecture, potentially developing into a kind of third bloc in the Middle East, not the Iranian axis and not the US-Israel alliance, but an independent Muslim framework led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.
If additional countries, particularly Egypt, joined, the consequences could be far-reaching.
From Israel’s perspective, the concern is not simply the size of the armed forces of the countries forming the new security alliance. It is the combination of their respective capabilities.
Turkey has NATO’s second-largest military and an advanced defense industry. Pakistan has a large military and a nuclear capability. Saudi Arabia brings economic power, energy resources and a central position in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
The combination of these three powers could prove far more significant than the sum of their individual capabilities.
For Israel, the most important question now is not why Egypt did not join the agreement, but whether, and when it might do so.
Egypt possesses a large military, a huge population, a strategically critical geographic position and a direct border with Israel. It is also the most historically and politically influential Arab state.
Egyptian accession to the Mecca Agreement could fundamentally alter the equation.
It would not only increase the alliance’s military weight, but also give it broad Arab legitimacy and make it more attractive to additional countries.
From the Israeli perspective, this scenario could transform the Mecca Agreement from a limited defense pact into the foundation of a new regional structure.
What Happens to Saudi-Israeli Normalization?
Another major question is the future of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel in light of these developments.
Senior officials in Jerusalem say that this possibility is becoming increasingly remote.
Israel has invested considerable effort in recent years in promoting the possibility of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. But the war in Gaza, the confrontation with Iran and the strengthening of the Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani axis have created a different strategic environment.
From Israel’s perspective, the Mecca Agreement may signal that Saudi Arabia wants to build its own security umbrella, one that is not dependent on Israel and does not rely exclusively on the United States.
That would represent a significant shift.
For years, Israeli strategy was based on the assumption that the Iranian threat would push moderate Arab states closer to Israel. The recent wars, however, could produce the opposite result: the emergence of an independent Muslim security framework.
Turkey Becomes a Strategic Challenge for Israel
Another significant development is that Turkey is increasingly becoming a strategic problem for Israel.
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, relations between Jerusalem and Ankara have deteriorated to an unprecedented low. At the same time, Turkey has expanded its influence in Syria.
Jerusalem is concerned about Turkey’s continued entrenchment in Syria and the possibility that Ankara could assist in rebuilding the Syrian military and even deploy air-defense systems there.
Such a scenario could restrict Israel’s freedom of aerial action in Syria and create a situation in which any Israeli-Turkish confrontation would no longer be a bilateral conflict between two states. Instead, it could become a confrontation with a country leading a broader regional framework.
Pakistan Adds a Nuclear Dimension
Pakistan introduces an entirely different dimension into the equation: nuclear capability.
Israel is concerned that ties between Islamabad and Riyadh could deepen in the strategic sphere as well.
Saudi Arabia has been advancing a civilian nuclear program in recent years, and its relationship with Pakistan could potentially provide Riyadh with knowledge, experience and strategic infrastructure that it does not currently possess.
There is no indication that Saudi Arabia is currently seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, the very possibility of a Pakistani nuclear umbrella extending over countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey could alter the strategic discourse in the region.
According to senior Israeli security officials, the recent war and the confrontation with Tehran demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are to a regional conflict beyond their control.
This, they argue, is driving their desire to establish their own security mechanism.
From this perspective, the Mecca Agreement could represent an attempt by Muslim states to reduce their dependence on Washington and create a regional mechanism capable of addressing both the Iranian threat and the prospect of another war in the region.
For Israel, this represents a major disappointment.
Jerusalem has spent years seeking to persuade Arab states that Israel can be part of the solution to the Iranian threat. The Mecca Agreement raises a different possibility: that these states may seek to address their security challenges on their own.
Senior Israeli political officials believe that if the trilateral alliance strengthens and attracts additional countries, it could eventually become a key actor in Middle East security and stability.
For Washington, such a development could actually prove convenient. It would allow the United States to reduce its military presence in the region and shift some responsibility for regional security to its local partners.
For Israel, however, that could be bad news.
Israel currently enjoys a unique position as the United States’ principal military ally in the Middle East. If Washington can rely on a regional Muslim framework to provide part of the region’s collective security, Israel’s position as a central pillar of the emerging regional order could gradually weaken.
