- Khamenei is conducting the war against Israel according to classical Shiite doctrine, adhering to principles of strategic patience, the use of proxies, deception, and an effort not to lose the Iranian street.
- The assessment within the Israeli security establishment is that Khamenei will not raise a white flag. He will do everything possible to ensure the survival of the regime and will not willingly give up the nuclear program and uranium enrichment as long as it does not pose a real risk to the regime’s stability.
This is not Iran’s first war since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the adoption of the principle of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which regards Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the deputy of the Hidden Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, in Shiite belief.
Iran fought against Iraq for eight years and militarily defended Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria during the civil war in 2011. It has successfully built a network of proxies across the Middle East that are subordinate to it. Even Sunni movements like Hamas and Islamic Jihad have come under its wing.
However, Khamenei has failed in his strategy during the current war. He did not activate Hizbullah against Israel on October 7, 2023, claiming that expanding the conflict would drag Iran into a trap.
Security officials say this was a severe strategic error that later led to the loss of his strongest proxy against Israel.
As a result, Khamenei is left only with the Houthis in Yemen. Hizbullah in Lebanon is entangled in conflicts with the Lebanese government, and the Shiite militias in Iraq are wary of the Iraqi government’s response.
Meanwhile, neither Hizbullah nor the Shiite militias dare to strike Israel.
Iran is a large country with over 90 million citizens and is accustomed to prolonged wars.
The Iranian regime combines Shiite Islamic elements with Persian nationalism in its war against Israel.
Khamenei speaks of concepts such as Jihad (holy war) and Shahada (martyrdom) in the battle against Israel. He is conducting the war in line with classical Shiite doctrine while maintaining clear strategic principles:
- Preserving internal power centers during the war to avoid losing control over the Iranian street, especially amid severe economic hardship and growing public pressure.
- Negotiating with the West through “strategic patience” (saber), using the principle of taqiyya – maintaining flexibility and concealing true intentions. In other words, deception.
- Employing religious rhetoric: the sacrifice of fighters through shahada is presented as a sacred phase intended to mask Iran’s military inferiority vis-à-vis Israel.
- Waging war through proxies – the Houthis in Yemen, and possibly later Hizbullah and Shiite militias in Iraq, referred to in Shiism as “men of faith,” forming part of the Resistance Axis.
Khamenei’s rhetoric frames the war against Israel as a victory through religious justice, not necessarily a military triumph. Security officials estimate that when reality hits hard, he is likely to gradually change his strategy – especially if internal attrition intensifies, economic pressure mounts, and he loses control over the remaining Iranian proxies, who may defy his orders to enter the war actively.
In such a scenario, he may seek a ceasefire and a “psychological victory.” He would instruct his proxies to scale down their attacks and portray Iran’s “steadfastness” against the Zionists as an achievement without surrendering. He may simultaneously attempt to open a secret channel with the United States.
The prevailing assessment in the security establishment is that Khamenei will not raise a white flag. He will do everything to ensure the regime’s survival and will not willingly forgo the nuclear program and uranium enrichment as long as it does not endanger regime stability.
He is expected to make vague promises and attempt to deceive the United States and Israel on the nuclear issue when he senses the noose tightening around his neck.
Iran’s key vulnerability is its lack of a direct border with Israel, making it unable to launch a ground assault, while Israel enjoys air superiority that allows it to systematically destroy nuclear sites and ballistic missile facilities through precise airstrikes and to impose a military defeat on Iran.
Therefore, Iran is attempting to formulate a counter-strategy to hurt Israel by targeting civilians and raising the economic cost of the war for Israel in the medium and long term.
Iran’s primary need is internal cohesion to survive. Its internal security apparatus has been severely damaged by Israeli Mossad operations.
At the current pace of accurate Israeli airstrikes, which are gradually eroding Iran’s military power and weapons arsenal, military recovery will become extremely difficult.
The Iranian regime could suffer a severe blow, and Israel would register a major and historic psychological victory in the Middle East – as the force that succeeded in containing and humiliating Iran.
