Summary
China has quietly supplied Iran with military components that help rebuild and upgrade its ballistic missiles and air-defense systems, increasing Tehran’s ability to threaten Israel and complicating regional dynamics.
Because these shipments are Chinese, direct strikes carry a high risk of broader escalation with Beijing, so Israel must balance deterrence with restraint.
The recommended response blends discreet diplomacy with economic pressure, coordinated US-Israel leverage over Iranian energy exports, intensified covert intelligence and sabotage operations, and regional diplomatic action to disrupt the supply chain while avoiding a direct confrontation with China.
In the tense weeks following the recent 12-day conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, Israeli intelligence and Western observers detected a surge in discreet Chinese military shipments to Iran. On at least two occasions earlier in 2025, Chinese cargo planes landed quietly on Iranian soil, unloading critical components destined to revive and expand Iran’s ballistic missile and air defense capabilities. These deliveries came amid Israeli airstrikes that severely crippled Iran’s existing missile arsenal and its aging Russian-made air defense systems. While Beijing publicly maintained a stance of neutrality, intelligence reports reveal a more complex reality: an intensified Chinese role in rehabilitating Iran’s military strength as part of a broader strategic partnership aimed at countering American influence in the region. Israel faces a thorny dilemma: any direct attack on these Chinese shipments risks escalating tensions dramatically with Beijing. Unlike Iranian or Russian equipment, Chinese military consignments carry the danger of igniting a broader geopolitical crisis, given China’s sensitive global standing and growing assertiveness. Israeli policymakers, therefore, must carefully calibrate their responses to avoid confrontation while managing the broader threat to regional security.
Historical Background: The Long Road of China-Iran Relations
China and Iran’s relationship stretches back to ancient times, rooted in Silk Road trade and cultural exchange more than two millennia ago. Official diplomatic ties between the People’s Republic of China and Iran were established in 1971, coinciding with a period of pragmatic engagement that has since evolved through Cold War tensions, revolution, and shifting alliances.
After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, China became one of the few countries willing to sell arms and dual-use technology to Iran despite international embargoes. The ties between the two deepened notably after Iran prioritized missile development in the late 1980s following the devastating Iran-Iraq war. China began providing ballistic missile technology and crucial components, supporting Iran’s ambitions to establish a robust missile program for regional deterrence.
The 2013-2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) marked a diplomatic turning point, easing sanctions and enabling China to significantly expand its economic and energy cooperation with Iran, while continuing a nuanced security partnership. With the recent deterioration of China-U.S. relations, Beijing has increasingly viewed Iran as a vital strategic partner to counterbalance Washington’s influence in the Middle East and beyond.
China’s Military Aid: Reviving Ballistic Missiles and Air Defense
China’s military assistance to Iran is multifaceted, focusing heavily on missile technology and air defense systems, two pillars of Tehran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. Reports confirm that China supplies Iran with essential precursors for solid-fuel ballistic missile propellants, guidance system components, and expertise to rebuild missile production lines disrupted by Israeli strikes and sanctions.
In addition to ballistic missile technology, China recently delivered advanced surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, such as variants of the HQ-9B, which are comparable to Russia’s S-300 systems but considered superior in some capabilities. These systems extend Iran’s air defense range and improve its ability to counter Israeli air strikes and U.S. aerial incursions. The HQ-9B deployment follows Iran’s loss of much of its existing Russian-supplied S-300 arsenal to Israeli attacks in 2024 and during the recent 12-day war.
Assessing the Threat to Israel
Iran’s ballistic missiles represent a significant threat to Israel due to their warhead size, advanced propulsion, and increasing range. Some designs incorporate maneuverable reentry vehicles and hypersonic technologies that complicate interception. Despite Israel’s multilayered air defense network, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow interceptors, some Iranian missiles have managed to breach these defenses during recent conflicts.
The infusion of Chinese missile technology and advanced air defense systems heightens this threat. The HQ-9B presents a more formidable challenge to Israeli air operations by potentially denying airspace and complicating precision strikes aimed at Iran’s missile production sites. This hardware upgrade could significantly degrade Israel’s current tactical advantage in the region’s asymmetric conflict dynamic.
Recommendations
Given these escalating challenges, Israel faces a complex strategic environment requiring a mix of diplomatic engagement and covert action to thwart the ongoing Chinese-Iranian military cooperation.
1. Activate Covert Diplomatic Channels with China
Given the sensitivity and complexity of confrontation, Israel should prioritize discreet backchannel diplomacy with Beijing. This includes leveraging existing intelligence contacts and diplomatic networks to communicate firm Israeli red lines against the supply of missile and air defense components to Iran. Israel should emphasize the geopolitical risks China faces from destabilizing the Middle East and remind Beijing of the potential global ramifications, including damage to China’s international image as a responsible power.
Israel might also explore cooperation with Chinese commercial entities vulnerable to secondary sanctions, applying quiet but effective economic pressure ranging from restricting investment approvals in key sectors to leveraging the threat of broader trade disruptions if Chinese military support continues unfettered.
2. Strengthen Joint U.S.-Israel Leverage on Chinese Energy Imports
Strategically, China imports around 10% of its oil from Iran, making Tehran a significant energy supplier for Beijing’s vast economy. This economic interdependence offers a vital lever for Israel and its allies, especially the United States. If China continues to provide military support to Iran at the expense of regional stability, Washington and Jerusalem can push to restrict or block the Iranian crude oil shipments fueling China’s energy needs. The use of coordinated sanctions, enhanced maritime interdiction, and financial pressure could compel Beijing to reconsider its overt military assistance, balancing its economic interests against growing diplomatic costs.
Israel and the United States must coordinate closely to monitor and interdict Iran’s oil shipments to China. Through financial pressure on Chinese “teapot” refineries and tighter sanctions on intermediaries enabling Tehran’s oil exports, strategic pressure can be maximized. Public diplomatic pressure combined with behind-the-scenes economic tools can expose and disrupt the military-financing pipeline Beijing provides to Tehran.
3. Expand Covert Intelligence and Sabotage Operations
Israeli intelligence should intensify HUMINT infiltration and cyber operations targeting Iran’s missile production and supply chains, especially the newly established facilities reconstructed with Chinese assistance. Operations akin to prior successful sabotage campaigns focused on unexploded missile parts, precursor chemical plants, and Chinese-linked industrial complexes can buy critical time to prevent full operationalization of the new systems.
Israel should pay special attention to the logistics networks facilitating these Chinese shipments, both at sea and on land. Covert sabotage of shipping routes or key cargo components without implicating China directly will help delay Iran’s military rehabilitation while avoiding escalating Israeli-Chinese tensions.
4. Amplify Regional Diplomatic Pressure
Israel should deepen alliances with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members who share concerns about Chinese military engagement in Iran. A coordinated regional diplomatic front can spotlight Chinese arms deliveries and press Beijing towards restraint. The GCC’s economic ties with China can become additional levers for constraint.
5. Public Diplomacy to Undermine China’s Narrative
China’s relations with Iran remain delicate, with Beijing walking a fine line between strategic pragmatism and its desire to be seen as a responsible global power. Israel can continue to expose Chinese complicity in facilitating Iranian missile proliferation in international forums and through media outlets, adding reputational cost to Beijing’s military support.
Conclusion
The covert influx of Chinese military-material shipments to Iran has marked a new phase in the rehabilitation of Tehran’s ballistic missile and air defense capabilities, posing a substantial risk to Israel’s strategic security. Yet direct military confrontations with Chinese shipments are fraught with risk, mandating a sophisticated and multifaceted response.
To successfully counter this emerging challenge, Israel must adopt a sophisticated dual strategy that combines robust diplomatic engagement with potent covert operations. Only by exposing and disrupting the Chinese backing of Iran’s military resurgence can Israel hope to maintain its strategic edge and regional security in the face of intensifying Sino-Iranian cooperation. Israel’s challenge lies in using economic leverage over Chinese energy interests and activating covert diplomatic and operational channels to influence Beijing’s behavior. By coupling discreet backchannel engagement with enhanced intelligence and sabotage efforts to disrupt Iran’s military buildup, Israel can foil the Chinese rehabilitation program without provoking a direct Sino-Israeli conflict.
This nuanced strategy, grounded in pragmatism and strategic patience, will be essential to preserving Israel’s security advantage in an increasingly complex geopolitical arena dominated by Sino-American rivalry and Iranian ambitions in the Middle East.
