Iran has threatened to destroy Israel if it initiates an all-out war against Hizbullah in Lebanon.
In the Israeli security establishment, the Iranian threat is taken seriously. While not new, it appears Iran is closer to deciding on entering a regional war to support Hizbullah, a step it has avoided until now.
Senior Israeli security officials are highly concerned about Iran’s recent threat to wage a “war of annihilation” against Israel on multiple fronts, including directly from Iran, should Israel launch a full-scale war against Hizbullah in Lebanon.
The U.S. Navy’s Amphibious Assault Ship, the USS Wasp, arrived in Spain on June 27, 2024. It is equipped with strike aircraft and helicopters. (U.S. Navy)
Although Iran’s threats to destroy Israel are not new, Israeli and American assessments previously believed that Iran was not interested in a regional war.
The current rhetoric from Iran suggests a shift towards a confrontation with Israel, bolstering the argument that Israel is in an existential struggle.
The Iranian announcement took regional players and the Biden administration by surprise. Israeli intelligence has varied assessments regarding what prompted Iran to make this threat now.
Iran Is Emboldened
One perspective suggests that Iran is emboldened by the results of its direct attack on Israel on April 14, 2024, during which it launched over 300 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. While virtually no weapon made it through defenses, Iran may have learned several lessons:
Israel struggled to handle this attack independently and required assistance from an international coalition led by the United States to defend against this unprecedented assault. Meanwhile, the American sea power in the region is in flux. The USS Eisenhower carrier left the Red Sea and is in the Mediterranean, returning to the United States. Its replacement, the USS Roosevelt, may take weeks to arrive on station.
Little attention has been given to the arrival of the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp, which passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and arrived in the western Mediterranean.
Iranian military leaders undoubtedly pondered a headline that appeared on June 24, 2024, “Chiefs of Staff chairman, Gen. Charles Q. Brown: “The U.S. likely unable to assist Israel in war with Hizbullah.”
Iran Took a United Nations Route
Another view expounded by Israeli intelligence is that Iran intended to send a political message to the United States and the United Nations.
This is evidenced by Iran issuing the threat through an official announcement by its UN delegation rather than the Revolutionary Guards’ usual channel.
This method aimed to communicate to the United States that the threat implies a shift from a limited conflict to a regional war, a scenario President Biden is keen to avoid, especially with the presidential elections approaching.
Political officials in Jerusalem note that the Iranian announcement violates the UN Charter, yet UN Secretary-General António Guterres has remained silent.
Iran’s message is clear: it will not abandon its ally Hizbullah and will prevent Israel from inflicting significant damage on it, especially after Hizbullah has significantly bolstered its military power since the 2006 war.
Message from Washington
Iran may be attempting to deter the United States and Israel following the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant to the United States. Iran may fear that the visit and the announcement of resumed U.S. arms shipments to Israel are preparations for a major surprise attack on Hizbullah, possibly preceding an all-out war.
Iran is also preparing for the possibility that Israel might launch a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear facilities if a regional war erupts.
During his visit to Washington, Defense Minister Galant discussed the Iranian nuclear threat in detail with senior U.S. officials. Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran has begun advancing the “Weapons Group,” which focuses on assembling a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.
In reality, all scenarios are on the table.
If Iran fully commits to a confrontation with Israel, has strengthened Hizbullah’s resolve not to withdraw its forces from the Lebanon-Israel border, and is ready for a regional war, then Israel may have little to lose.
Strategic and military logic might dictate that Israel should preemptively strike Iran’s nuclear facilities before Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
Defense Minister Galant emphasized in a recent conversation with IDF soldiers on the northern border that Israel prefers a political settlement with Hizbullah rather than an all-out war.
Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed similar sentiments at the latest cabinet meeting. However, Iran appears to believe that Israel is weakened, viewing this as an opportune moment to attack with full force from all fronts, including Iran itself, utilizing tens of thousands of ballistic missiles, precision missiles, rockets, and UAVs.
Iran may estimate that the United States, weakened by internal political crises, will be slow to come to Israel’s aid, allowing Iran to achieve strategic gains.
The IDF assesses that an all-out war with Hizbullah could escalate into a regional conflict.
Israel’s political and security leadership faces a difficult dilemma and is approaching a critical decision point.
