Tensions have been rising between the Christian community and Hizbullah since the beginning of the October war between Israel and Hamas. The Christian community has been expressing its criticism, accusing Hizbullah of involvement in the Hamas-Israel war and dragging Lebanon into a war with Israel without prior consultations with either the state decision-makers or the other parties. The war could cost Lebanon dire consequences in an already dangerous situation of economic chaos and political paralysis due to Hizbullah’s purposely blocking the election of a president, a post vacant since the end of October 2022.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s secretary-general, has been criticizing in his last speeches “those” (referring to the Christian parties and the Maronite Archbishop Ra’i) who spend their time tanning at the beaches, enjoying classy restaurants and lavish hotels instead of joining his war effort against Israel as part of the “support front” backing Hamas. Nasrallah commented on the Christian opposition’s claim that the majority of Lebanese do not want war in southern Lebanon, stating, “Everyone should be aware of their stature and what they represent.”
Hizbullah has been monitoring the changes in the Christian camp since the beginning of the war. Hizbullah’s arch-enemy, Samir Geagea, the head of the “Lebanese Forces” party (LF) and the most vocal critic of Hizbullah’s involvement in the Hamas-Israel war, has gained dominance in the Christian camp since Jibran Bassil, the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement” (FPM) and the leader of the “Strong Lebanon bloc” in the parliament, Hizbullah’s strategic ally since 2006, has been abandoned by four of his parliamentary members, thus losing the majority of the Christian bloc in parliament.
Hizbullah’s answer to the mounting criticism expressed by the Christian camp is no surprise. A survey published by the pro-Hizbullah newspaper Al-Akhbar1 claimed that only 15.7 percent of Lebanon’s population is Christian (compared to 33-35% of the population that was accepted as a consensus)— a figure that has caused pandemonium and raised old fears among Lebanon’s Christian community, which saw in the survey a clear message sent by Hizbullah, meant to warn that the present political status quo agreed in 1990 by all parties to end the civil war in Taif, is no longer valid. Had the time come for a radical change in Lebanon’s power distribution? That power balance, known as the confessional system, was first set in 1943 between the representatives of the Christian and Sunni communities (leaving “crumbs” to the Shi’i community) and remodeled in 1990 at the end of the civil war. The Christian-dominated political scene was compelled to accept parity between Muslims and Christians in parliament. Still, the Christians retained strategic positions such as the presidency and the army’s leadership even though they accepted the fact that they had lost political power since the end of the civil war 1990.
Now, Hizbullah was signaling that it was no longer ready to accept the present distribution and that the time had come to divest the Christian community of the remaining assets dominating Lebanese politics.
Interesting as it may be, Al-Akhbar had to be creative in reaching this figure in a country torn by confessional balance, where the last official demographic census dates to 1932. The survey’s author, Nehme Nehme, who presents himself as an education researcher, based his calculations on the list of candidates registered for the baccalaureate exam, both general and technical (sic!). Nehme wrote that based on this data, “We can determine that 15.7 percent of Lebanese candidates for the secondary diploma exams are Christian and conclude that this figure represents the reality of the community in the country.” In his article, Nehme called to change Lebanon’s political system, suggesting that Christians may need to accept moving from confessional parity to a “civil” system as “the only way to preserve their presence” in Lebanon.2
The Lebanese Forces (LF) spokesperson Charles Jabbour contested the survey methodology, claiming, “It’s enough to remember that during the parliamentary elections in May 2022, 35 percent of those who voted were Christian. How can this figure suddenly drop to just 15 percent, less than half?” Jabbour argued that this was a political message, a way to pressure Christians into silence regarding Hizballah’s actions.3
The Political Battle Often Spilled onto the Battlefield
This is not the first time Hizbullah and other Muslim circles have reminded the public that the parity between Muslims (Sunnis, Shiites, and Druze) and Christians can hardly be justified by demographics. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati claimed in 2023 that a study had shown that Christians represented only 19 percent of Lebanon’s population.
Hassan Nasrallah was crystal clear about his ideological intention in Lebanon. Already in 1985, he claimed that his goal was to transform Lebanon into an additional province of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Now, it seems that the conditions have ripened for such a mission, which is delayed for the time being because of Hizbullah’s war against Israel. Once the war is over, it seems that the next phase of the expansion of the Iranian axis will be to change the political equation in Lebanon.
Charles Jabbour’s answer for the time being was: “We will only accept a change in the political system under one condition: The adoption of a federal system.”
If this assumption is correct, the Lebanon we knew is about to change for the worse, unfortunately.
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Notes
