The cease-fire agreement with Lebanon presents Israel with significant intelligence and operational challenges to prevent Hizbullah’s military recovery and reestablishment in southern Lebanon.
Israel must adopt a proactive security policy on its northern border, as Iran and Hizbullah are likely to seek opportunities to surprise Israel at a time and place that serves their interests.
The future of the Republic of Lebanon after the cease-fire agreement is uncertain.
Current assessments within Israel’s security establishment suggest that Hizbullah will recover quickly with Iranian support, regaining control over Lebanon and the southern border region with Israel.
Hizbullah’s elite “Radwan” force may have been severely weakened but not completely neutralized. It is expected to rebuild and renew its terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. In this pause in the war, Hizbullah is poised to emerge as an even more dangerous threat.
Hizbullah could revive its original plan to seize parts of the Galilee in a future confrontation. The hostile intentions of Iran and Hizbullah remain unchanged.
Israel must abandon its long-standing containment policy regarding Hizbullah—a strategy that has defined Israeli governments since the Second Lebanon War.
Hizbullah’s Adaptation Post-War
Hizbullah’s desire for revenge, fueled by the heavy casualties it suffered during the conflict, may lead it to refine its tactics and leadership. With Iranian assistance, it is expected to restore its military capabilities.
One scenario under consideration by Israel’s security forces is the possibility of Hizbullah resuming kidnappings, as it has done in the past.
This concern is underscored by historical incidents, such as the abduction of IDF Colonel Elchanan Tennenbaum in Dubai in 2000.
The recent IDF operation on November 2, 2023, that captured senior Hizbullah naval officer Imad El-Hamaz in the Al-Batroun area on the northern Lebanon coast, may provoke a retaliatory response.
Israel’s Achievements and Future Vigilance
While Israel scored significant successes in the war against Hizbullah, the organization remains militarily intact. Once Israeli military pressure eases, Hizbullah is expected to recover rapidly.
In the short term, Israel can safely facilitate the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents along its northern border. However, maintaining long-term security will require heightened vigilance.
Israel has significantly restored its deterrent power, which had been undermined by Hamas’s surprise attacks of October 7, 2023.
To preserve this achievement, Israel must conduct consistent military operations in Lebanese territory whenever Hizbullah violates the cease-fire agreement or UN Resolution 1701.
Israel’s Essential Strategic Actions
- Targeted Military Operations: Israel should continue punitive strikes to deter Hizbullah from violating agreements. This includes targeted assassinations of senior Hizbullah figures, particularly its leadership.
- Countering Iranian Influence: Iran, as the primary supplier of Hizbullah, must also be targeted, particularly the supply lines through Syria. Israel’s success in conducting multi-front operations during the recent conflict demonstrated its capacity to emerge victoriously through prolonged attrition warfare.
- Intelligence-Driven Strategy: Establishing an advanced intelligence system to monitor Hizbullah’s activities is essential. This intelligence should translate into actionable targets for airstrikes or ground operations in Lebanon.
- Buffer Zone Enforcement: In cases of serious violations near the border, the IDF should create a “sterile death zone” demilitarized of any weaponry and terrorist infrastructure. This area should be controlled via long-range fire and aerial weapons, ensuring no hostile presence.
Preventing Complacency
The political leadership in Israel must remain vigilant and uncompromising regarding violations of the agreement. Hizbullah will likely attempt to erode the cease-fire, presenting Israel with incremental faits accomplis.
Israel must avoid falling into complacency, as it did with Hamas before October 7, 2023. Hizbullah may employ similar Hamas tactics, feigning calm while planning a devastating surprise at a time of its choosing.
In conclusion, Israel’s conduct will determine the success of the agreement.
A proactive and unyielding security policy is crucial to counter the threats posed by Hizbullah and Iran to ensure long-term stability on Israel’s northern border.
