Tehran, June 2020. The hall was draped with “Death to America” flags and photos of the revolution. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei entered slowly. Cameras flashed. He sat down, surrounded by aides. On the table lay the “Strategic Action Plan”, Iran’s uranium enrichment program in retaliation for sanctions.
The historic moment had arrived. The state TV announcer declared in a prophetic tone: “With this signature, we will force the West to its knees!”
Khamenei solemnly lifted the pen. He began to sign – but the paper remained blank. He pressed harder. Nothing. Five seconds of awkward silence passed. Khamenei looked around, paused, and whispered: “It’s a conspiracy.” Finally, an aide emerged with a new pen. The signature was completed. The audience politely applauded. It was a simple technical glitch – but a moment that revealed the mind of the man: deeply suspicious, verging on paranoid, seeing an invisible hand behind every object.
An Aging Ruler in a Boiling Era
Khamenei, 86, has ruled Iran with an iron grip since 1989. A survivor of a 1981 assassination attempt, in which a booby-trapped tape recorder exploded during a press conference, he was severely injured, nearly losing use of his right hand. The trauma cemented his deep suspicion of any internal or external actor. To him, there is no real difference between a political rival, a civilian dissident, a CIA agent, or a young protester on the streets of Tehran – they are all potential agents of a global conspiracy to topple the Islamic Republic. From this perspective, Khamenei never saw himself merely as a ruler, but as the last guardian of the 1979 revolution.
Mechanisms of Mutual Suspicion
Driven by these fears, Khamenei established an elaborate internal surveillance system in Iran, where multiple bodies monitor, spy on, and even inform on one another: The Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence monitors the army; the secret police investigate the Interior Ministry; and the civilian intelligence ministry operates independently of them all.
This fragmented design prevents any one figure from amassing too much power, but it also fuels an atmosphere of constant fear, silence, and existential alertness.
Velayat-e Faqih: A Doctrine of Total Rule
All of this is rooted in the Shiite legal principle known as Velayat-e Faqih – the rule of the Islamic jurist. According to this doctrine, only a senior cleric (faqih) may rule the state until the return of the Hidden Imam.
Khamenei embodies this doctrine, but he knows even religious legitimacy can be shattered by public uprisings or economic turmoil. His deepest fear? To be remembered as “the last Ayatollah” – the one under whose watch the Islamic revolution collapsed.
The Real Threat: The People Inside, Not the Enemy Outside
Though Khamenei often speaks of the “Great Satan” – the United States – his true fear lies within. He remembers well the mass protests of 2009 following elections, and the uprisings of 2019 and 2022. His response was brutal. Hundreds were killed, thousands were arrested and he ordered complete internet blackouts. He perceives every strike or protest as an existential threat, responding with force, imprisoning activists, and using internal economic pressure as a weapon.
The Truck Drivers’ Strike – and the West’s Shadow
In recent weeks, Iran’s truck drivers have been striking. Fuel shortages, maintenance costs, and economic fears over prolonged protest have created unrest that could ignite the entire country.
One driver told foreign media: “We’ve been striking for 14 days. We’re out of money. Where’s Trump to help us?”
This is not necessarily a cry for a specific president, but a call for Western intervention, not just militarily, but economically and socially: funding protest hotspots, logistical support, and free communication.
Khamenei understands this, which is why he devotes vast resources to surveillance, arrests, and attempts to isolate different sectors of the population from each other.
Nuclear Talks with the United States: Between Diplomacy and Detonation
Khamenei understands the West repeatedly backs down from its demands. After withdrawing from the nuclear deal, Trump set out many conditions, but grew politically weaker over time, and pressure faded.
Khamenei believes that under any future administration, the United States will likely avoid direct confrontation, especially while entangled in other global arenas.
This explains his approach to nuclear negotiations. On the surface, he projects toughness and “steadfastness,” but behind the scenes, he closely watches for any American movement. He remembers well that in past negotiations, the United States gave in multiple times – lifting sanctions, dropping core demands, and returning to the table without leverage. To him, it is proof the West lacks stamina for prolonged confrontation.
Khamenei also has a long memory. On July 3, 1988, the United States accidentally shot down Iranian Flight IR655, killing all 290 passengers. Weeks later, former Iranian leader Ruhollah Khomeini himself said he was “drinking the poisoned chalice” and agreed to a ceasefire – a near-surrender to former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. The reason: fear of direct U.S. intervention.
At that time, Khamenei was president and close to the decision making. The humiliation and lesson are etched into his consciousness. For this reason, today, despite his hardline image, Khamenei does not seek direct conflict with the United States. His nightmare is an American attack that destabilizes the regime, and makes him, as the last Ayatollah, the one who led the republic to collapse.
Between the Poisoned Chalice and the Illusion of Immortality
Khamenei stands at a historic crossroads. On one hand, he wants to be remembered as the leader who preserved the revolution, the nuclear program, and the “axis of resistance.” On the other, he knows collapse could come from within—through economic cracks, fatigued power structures, and engines starved of fuel.
As the French philosopher Michel de Montaigne once said: “The best king is the one who knows when to lay down his crown—before it falls off his head.”
But Khamenei is not the type to step down. If the West wants to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power, it must target the real objective: not just a nuclear agreement, but regime change.
This cannot be achieved through military force alone, but through a combination of military strength, economic suffocation, and support for internal unrest. Three forces that, together, could bring the regime to its knees.
