Summary
Iranian discourse is converging around three parallel fronts: an escalating nuclear dossier under the threat of renewed sanctions, a deteriorating economy and society, and an ongoing cognitive campaign against Israel and the United States. The leadership presents diplomacy as a form of “armed negotiation,” expressing deep distrust toward the IAEA and demanding guarantees before resuming cooperation.
Domestically, inflation, inequality, and a growing water crisis are worsening. While the ruling establishment frames civil criticism as part of a coordinated influence operation, the gap between rhetoric and tangible achievements continues to widen, further deepening Iran’s crisis of public trust.
Against the backdrop of renewed nuclear tensions, persistent economic decline, and an ongoing cognitive and media campaign against Israel and the United States, public discourse in Tehran this morning is dominated by an exceptional convergence of external security strain and an intensifying domestic crisis.
Reports of international pressure surrounding the snapback sanctions mechanism, combined with growing social unrest and the regime’s tightening cultural enforcement, paint a complex portrait of an Iranian leadership struggling to stabilize its grip both internally and externally.
1. The Nuclear Front: “Armed Diplomacy” Returns
Following the expiration of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 on October 18, 2025, Western powers are seeking to reinstate sanctions through the snapback mechanism.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged multiple messages from Washington but dismissed any attempt to “dictate terms,” accusing the U.S. and its allies of having “betrayed diplomacy” and violated the nuclear accord.
Iranian rhetoric now rests on the concept of a “weaponized state.” As Araghchi put it, any potential dialogue with the United States would amount to “armed negotiations,” conducted without trust and with full preparedness for deception by the opposing side.
2. The IAEA and the Question of Trust
Atomic Energy Organization chief Seyed Mohammad Eslami expressed total distrust toward the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), minimizing its relevance. He claimed the agency “serves the interests of America and the Zionist regime” and referred to past attacks on a joint exhibition facility as evidence that the body had lost credibility.
Tehran, he said, demands “guarantees” against future strikes as a precondition for cooperation.
3. Israel, the U.S., and Gaza: The Battle for Perception
Tehran’s state-aligned media continue to delegitimize Israel. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif declared that “the greatest and only threat to the Zionist regime’s existence is peace and calm,” explaining Iran’s opposition to any stabilizing settlement.
A report by Oil Change International is cited in Iran as proof of international complicity, claiming that 25 countries supplied oil to Israel during the recent conflict, roughly 70% of crude oil coming from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Greece, and the United States.
A leaked American draft proposing an international stabilization force in Gaza is portrayed in Tehran as legitimizing a “division” between a “green zone” and a “red zone.” Meanwhile, Israeli leaders insist no Palestinian state will be established. Domestically, Iranian authorities accuse social media networks of coordinating with “foreign enemies” to generate hashtags such as “presidential incompetence” and “impeachment.”
4. Economy and Energy: A Chronic Imbalance
Iran’s economy remains mired in chronic inflation and heavy government expenditures. Economists warn that a flawed budgetary structure and administrative chaos are obstructing the 2026 national budget, while fears mount over rising food prices and social costs. To manage the worsening electricity crisis, authorities have implemented planned power outages and increased the fuel quota for industrial generators by 20%, a clear sign of structural imbalance between supply and demand. Iran was also the fifth-largest gold importer in the first nine months of 2025. Externally, Tehran views Russia’s “pivot to Asia” and its use of a “shadow fleet” for oil exports as a strategic model mirroring Iran’s own, though on a far greater scale.
5. Society, Science, and Governance
Iran’s social capital continues to erode, marked by intellectual decline, isolation, and internal migration from urban centers to economic margins.
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that disregard for the “laws of nature and science” could lead to disaster. Moderate clerics have dismissed claims linking drought to hijab policy as “blatantly unscientific.” Meanwhile, academics are calling on colleagues to “be the voice of society and stand with the people,” in an effort to rebuild public trust.
6. Security Apparatus: From Warfare to “Civil Terror”
The security establishment’s current focus is on damage prevention and tightening protection around critical infrastructure. The intelligence minister announced a new “counter-infiltration program,” asserting that Iran’s enemies have shifted from conventional warfare to “civil terror and incitement,” including efforts to “promote shallowness” in society. Official discourse increasingly portrays cyberspace as an organized battlefield aimed at undermining the regime.
7. Contradictions and Fault Lines
Legally, Tehran condemns the snapback mechanism as illegitimate, yet simultaneously exploits adversaries’ admissions as “evidence” in international forums. Socially, calls for unity clash with declining income and public trust. Regionally, Saudi conditions for normalization diverge from Israeli statements, while American initiatives are viewed as attempts to impose a new security reality. Official declarations of “victory” in the 12-day war stand in stark contrast to damaged infrastructure and lingering uncertainty.
What They Don’t Tell You in Iran:
Systematic Persecution of Baháʼís
The Baháʼí community continues to face arrests, interrogations, vague indictments, and employment and education bans. Recent months have seen high-profile arrests, often conducted in private homes with confiscation of personal property, extending years of cumulative punishment. State-run media rarely cover the issue or portray it as a “fight against cults.” The result is a pervasive climate of fear, exclusion, and institutional discrimination, visible across academia and the labor market, clear signs of systematic religious persecution rather than isolated incidents.
Zahedan’s “Bloody Friday” – A Wound That Hasn’t Healed
On September 30, 2022, Revolutionary Guard forces opened fire on protesters outside the Makki Mosque in Zahedan, killing dozens.
Families of victims and members of the Baluchi community report total impunity for senior officers. Ongoing legal delays, bureaucratic transfers, and restrictions on lawyers have fostered a deep sense of chronic injustice. Activists who held the authorities accountable have been arrested or harassed. Although the regime insists “investigations are ongoing,” the public sees no tangible change, a central test of state accountability and judicial integrity in cases of state violence.
Self-Immolation as Protest: Iran’s Social Pressure Cooker
In the span of 12 days, three self-immolation cases were reported, including a student protesting damage to his family’s livelihood and a laborer from Iran’s periphery. Behind each tragedy lie debts, unemployment, bureaucracy, and despair over ineffective governance.
Authorities often respond with disciplinary action or vague promises of investigation, while mental-health and welfare services remain severely inadequate. Such a pattern, analysts warn, is not random; it’s a warning signal of deep social distress ignored by policymakers.
Child Marriage and Gender-Based Violence
Independent media occasionally expose extreme cases of girls married at ages 12–14, some becoming mothers within a year and trapped in cycles of dependency, abuse, and legal invisibility. In the notable case of Goli Kouhkan, proceedings continue amid claims of a confession without counsel and demands for diyah (blood money) to avoid a severe sentence.
State-aligned discourse frames such cases as matters of “tradition” and “law,” shifting focus to public spectacles about “family honor.” The issue remains marginalized, with no systemic approach to protection, education, or support.
Culture and Control: When Design Meets the Hijab Police
The Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported that Tehran Design Week was abruptly halted following the release of an “indecent video.” According to Fars, the shutdown came after a protest by the Basij Student Organization of the Faculty of Arts, which claimed that “the poor quality of flashy imitations has turned the university into a place of problematic entertainment.” Videos reportedly showed politically charged music and women without hijab during the ceremony. “Tehran Design Week,” an event meant to showcase creative innovation, has now become a flashpoint in the government’s cultural enforcement campaign, with regime loyalists publicly attacking the event’s organizers, the university, and the minister of science.
FAQ
How does the Iranian leadership describe its approach to nuclear negotiations with the United States following the expiration of Resolution 2231?
What is the source of Iran’s distrust toward the IAEA, and how does it leverage this distrust diplomatically?
How is Iran coping with its internal economic and social crises?
How does Iran portray Israel and the United States within its cognitive campaign, and how does it frame domestic dissent?
Which social and political issues receive minimal attention in Iran’s official discourse, and what is being concealed from the public?
- Persecution of Baháʼís: arrests, employment and education bans, and confiscation of property, with almost no media coverage.
- Zahedan Massacre (“Bloody Friday”): lack of accountability for the killing of protesters and ongoing judicial stalling.
- Wave of self-immolations: indicative of severe psychological and social collapse, yet framed as isolated incidents.
- Child marriage and gender-based violence: portrayed as matters of “tradition,” rather than as human rights violations.
- Tightened hijab enforcement: including the cancellation of cultural events, such as Tehran Design Week, following claims of immodesty.
Together, these patterns reflect a deep rift between the regime’s image of stability and a reality marked by repression, mistrust, and lack of transparency.
