Senior Israeli officials say Iran encouraged Hizbullah to violate the ceasefire to provoke an Israeli response and make it seem as if Jerusalem is deliberately sabotaging the U.S.-Iran memorandum, aiming to inflame President Trump against Israel.
According to these officials, Israel has made it clear to Washington that it is fully committed to the ceasefire and that any Israeli military action against Hizbullah has been purely defensive, undertaken in response to Hizbullah’s violations.
Senior security officials further contend that Iran pressured the United States on June 20 to secure an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. Their intention was to help Hizbullah salvage its fortified ground complex on the Ali Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon, currently under Israeli military control. Dozens of Hizbullah operatives are reportedly trapped there.
High-ranking political officials in Jerusalem argue that Iran is seeking to bend Washington to its will in implementing the memorandum of understanding and to shape its execution in line with Tehran’s strategic vision.
According to their assessment, the Iranians are attempting this even before negotiations on a permanent settlement have begun. They seek to compel both the United States and Israel to accept, willingly or not, the principle of “unity of arenas” and the strategic linkage between Iran, Lebanon, and Hizbullah.
Israeli officials believe Iran sees two key global maritime straits—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb—as leverage points over the U.S. They think Iran expects these chokepoints to influence President Trump, given concerns over oil prices and the political implications for U.S. elections.
From Tehran’s perspective, these vulnerabilities significantly constrain the American president’s room for maneuver and could ultimately force him to accommodate Iranian demands while also pressuring Israel to do the same.
This perception was reflected in a statement issued on June 18 by Iran’s leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who asserted that President Trump had agreed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran “out of desperation” and had employed “various forms of pressure” to secure it.
A senior Israeli security official assesses that Iran intends to negotiate a permanent agreement through coercive diplomacy. He believes Iran will repeatedly threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb whenever negotiations encounter obstacles.
Israeli officials view Khamenei’s statement as a set of guiding principles for the Iranian negotiating team.
In his remarks, Khamenei stated that President Masoud Pezeshkian had assured him that if the American side attempted to impose “excessive demands,” the Iranian negotiating team would reject them. “From this point forward, we, the proud nation, await the fulfillment of the conditions that were agreed upon in advance,” Khamenei declared. He further emphasized that direct negotiations with the United States should not be interpreted as “acceptance of the enemy’s position.”
Shortly after Khamenei’s statement, President Pezeshkian issued his own message, declaring: “As President of the Republic and Chairman of the Supreme National Security Council, I and all members of the Council are fully committed to addressing the concerns of the Leader and safeguarding the rights of the Iranian people and the Resistance Front.”
He added that “the red line for all branches of government remains the national interests and the preservation of the dignity, prestige, and power of the Iranian nation,” expressing confidence that “the negotiating team will achieve a major victory.”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament and head of the Iranian delegation to the talks, described the Supreme Leader’s remarks as a “roadmap.” He stressed that they demonstrate more clearly than ever that “the end of the memorandum of understanding is merely the beginning of a difficult and complex journey.” He also warned that Iran would deliver a “crushing response” should the other side fail to honor its commitments.
Israeli security officials assess that Iran is likely to pursue tough negotiations with Washington to signal victory to its regional proxies and demonstrate its ongoing commitment to its network of allies.
According to these officials, Tehran is planning to turn next month’s multi-day funeral procession for former Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, assassinated by Israel, into both a demonstration of victory over the United States and Israel, and a display of strength aimed at domestic opponents of the regime.
Security officials also maintain that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) agreed to the memorandum of understanding because it would directly benefit from the arrangement, given its extensive economic influence and broad control over key sectors of the Iranian economy.
Over the years, the IRGC has built a vast economic empire under the sanctions regime, with interests in oil, construction, telecommunications, port operations, and infrastructure sectors. Its engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, oversees hundreds of subsidiaries involved in major projects across energy, infrastructure, logistics, automotive manufacturing, tourism, and communications.
Given Iran’s economic structure and the requirement that foreign companies work with local partners, the IRGC is expected to become a central player in any reopening of Iran’s economy to foreign investment and international trade.
Consequently, even if sanctions are lifted, much of the incoming foreign capital will likely be routed through economic networks connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
