The London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat reported on July 19 that Egypt had concluded a joint military exercise with Turkey focusing on countering unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and conducting live-fire drills under unconventional combat scenarios. The exercise brought together Egyptian airborne and commando units alongside Turkish special forces.
According to the report, the drill was part of an accelerating process of military rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara.
This trend has been reflected in a growing number of joint exercises since the two countries signed a framework agreement on military cooperation approximately five months ago, during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Cairo in February.
Senior Israeli security officials noted that the military capabilities demonstrated during the exercise are characteristic of armed forces preparing for future threats rather than for the wars of the past.
They added that, in parallel with the Turkish exercise, Egypt also held a series of operational meetings with the Pakistani Navy, indicating that Cairo is simultaneously expanding its military partnerships into South Asia.
According to senior diplomatic officials, the latest exercise is a direct continuation of the dramatic warming in relations between Egypt and Turkey, following more than a decade of severe tensions since the 2013 ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, a leading figure of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Since President Erdoğan’s February visit to Cairo and the signing of the military framework agreement, security cooperation between the two countries has accelerated significantly. Within just a few months, the two militaries have conducted several joint exercises across air, land, and sea domains, including the Anatolian Eagle 2026 air exercise, which featured Egyptian F-16 fighter aircraft operating alongside Turkish and Azerbaijani aircraft.
For both governments, the restoration of bilateral relations is driven not only by political considerations but also by the recognition that the Middle East’s evolving strategic landscape requires greater cooperation among the region’s leading powers.
Drones Are Transforming the Battlefield
One of the most significant aspects of the exercise was its emphasis on countering unmanned aerial threats.
According to senior security officials, the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have demonstrated that drones and unmanned aerial systems have become among the most significant threats on the modern battlefield. Both state and non-state actors increasingly rely on drones for intelligence gathering, precision strikes, and electronic warfare.
Consequently, the exercise represented far more than tactical training; it reflected a joint effort by Egypt and Turkey to prepare for what has become an integral component of contemporary regional warfare.
At the same time that Cairo is strengthening ties with Ankara, it is also deepening its defense relationship with Pakistan.
The recent visit by the Commander of the Pakistan Navy to Alexandria, his meetings with senior Egyptian naval commanders, visits to Egyptian naval shipyards and the Naval Academy, and the series of joint exercises conducted over the past year all point to a clear trend toward expanding maritime security cooperation.
Pakistan is widely regarded as one of the Muslim world’s leading military powers, possessing extensive expertise in special operations, strategic deterrence, and maritime security. From Egypt’s perspective, Pakistan represents a partner of considerable strategic value.
A New Regional Axis
These developments are unfolding as the Middle East undergoes a profound strategic realignment.
According to senior Israeli security officials, the weakening of Iranian influence across several regional arenas, uncertainty surrounding future American engagement, the continuation of regional conflicts, and growing competition over trade routes and energy corridors are all driving Middle Eastern states to seek new regional security arrangements.
Turkey seeks to expand its influence throughout the Middle East; Egypt aims to preserve its position as the Arab world’s leading power; and Pakistan is working to strengthen its presence throughout both the Arab and broader Muslim worlds. Their growing cooperation serves the strategic interests of all three.
The Israeli Perspective
According to senior diplomatic officials, although the exercises were officially presented as professional counterterrorism training, it is difficult to ignore their broader strategic context.
Turkey has adopted an increasingly confrontational political posture toward Israel in recent months and has repeatedly warned against what it describes as Israel’s expanding regional influence. Egypt, despite maintaining its peace treaty and close security coordination with Israel, is also carefully monitoring regional developments while seeking to preserve both its regional status and its strategic freedom of action.
Senior security officials say Egyptian officials have assured their American counterparts that expanding cooperation with Ankara and Islamabad should not be interpreted as the formation of an anti-Israel alliance. Rather, Cairo portrays the effort as part of a broader strategy to diversify its strategic partnerships and reduce dependence on any single international actor.
Nevertheless, Israeli security officials argue that the growing series of joint military exercises, defense agreements, and high-level military exchanges among Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan indicates that a much broader strategic partnership is quietly taking shape.
The three countries are no longer limiting themselves to political declarations but are gradually building interoperable capabilities across the air, maritime, and special operations domains.
Should this trend continue, it could eventually produce one of the most significant security alliances in the Muslim world, one capable of reshaping not only the regional balance of power but also the way Middle Eastern states prepare for the security challenges of the coming decade.
Senior Israeli security officials emphasize that the recent exercises should not be viewed as isolated events but rather as components of a much broader restructuring of the regional alliance system.
According to these officials, a new Sunni axis is emerging, preparing to fill the strategic vacuum expected to be left by the collapse of the Iranian-led Shiite “Axis of Resistance” following the anticipated fall of the regime in Tehran.
Although the exercises have been officially described as preparations for counterterrorism operations and defense against unmanned aerial threats, they also reflect a broader effort to establish joint operational capabilities among three of the most powerful militaries in the Muslim world.
Israeli officials continue to regard the peace treaty and security cooperation with Egypt as one of Israel’s most important strategic assets. At the same time, they stress that Cairo’s rapidly expanding relationship with Ankara warrants scrutiny, particularly in light of President Erdoğan’s ambition to position Turkey as the leading power in the Muslim world and as a counterweight to Israeli influence across the region.
According to these officials, Pakistan’s inclusion significantly broadens the scope of this emerging partnership. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed military power with advanced capabilities in special operations, air warfare, and missile technology. The strengthening of its defense ties with both Egypt and Turkey could eventually lay the groundwork for much broader military cooperation.
At present, however, Israel assesses that the three countries are primarily adapting to a new regional reality characterized by declining Iranian influence in several theaters, uncertainty regarding the future extent of American commitment, and intensifying competition over global trade routes and energy corridors.
Israeli officials caution, however, that regional dynamics can change rapidly. Over time, this emerging partnership could evolve into a military alliance directed against Israel, one that may prove considerably more formidable than the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance.
Jerusalem is therefore monitoring these developments with growing concern, recognizing that any significant shift in the regional balance of power among the Middle East’s major states could have profound implications for Israel’s future security environment.
