- The events in southern Syria may lead to a deterioration that could result in Syria’s disintegration.
- Senior security officials estimate that the jihadist ideology led by al-Julani clashes with the political need to compromise with minorities and adapt activities to the complex reality on the ground.
- Syria stands today at a dramatic crossroads. The internal crisis – marked by conflicts between ethnic and religious groups, coupled with a prolonged state collapse, culminating in the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime – casts doubt on its future stability.
The unrest in southern Syria, especially the clashes between the Druze community and Bedouin tribes in the Suwayda region, reflects not just local disputes but a weakening of the new central regime’s security and control mechanisms.
One of the key players in the radical Islamic arena is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, Syria’s interim president, who calls himself Ahmad al-Sharaa. He is the former head of the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra. Known for his ideological and military charisma, al-Jolani now leads Syria toward what he claims is a new future, aspiring to unite the country and improve its economy after the devastating civil war that began in 2011.
Senior security sources believe that al-Jolani’s jihadist ideology fundamentally conflicts with the political necessity of compromising with the country’s minorities and adapting to Syria’s fragmented landscape.
Whether through local agreements or temporary ceasefires, al-Jolani faces a difficult dilemma: how to balance his ideological principles with Syria’s disintegrating reality.
Moreover, Western and Israeli intelligence question whether al-Julani is either willing or capable of crossing the Rubicon and initiating a comprehensive strategic effort to stabilize Syria – or whether he will remain merely a battlefield jihadist without broad leadership capacity.
Israel is highly concerned about developments in Syria.
In January 2025, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Syrian crisis and its implications, stating: “The situation in Syria has become a major source of regional instability, and any attempt to harm Israel’s security will be met with resolve.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said in February 2025: “Syria’s internal crisis requires us to remain alert and prepared for any scenario. There is no room for complacency in the face of a situation that threatens regional stability.”
Israel’s approach to the Syrian crisis is centered on deterrence and prevention, alongside targeted strikes against Iranian, Hizbullah, and terrorist forces attempting to entrench themselves near Israel’s border.
Israel sees Syria as a critical front in its struggle against Iran but is also acutely aware that Syria’s internal collapse could result in ungovernable zones posing significant security threats.
As part of this policy, Israel has expanded the buffer zone on the Golan Heights, destroyed the Assad regime’s weapons arsenal, and made it clear to al-Julani’s new regime that military forces and weapons are not to enter southern Syria.
Israeli intervention significantly impacts the balance of power in the region, placing real constraints on al-Jolani’s regime.
However, senior defense sources emphasize that Israeli actions cannot resolve Syria’s internal conflicts, which require broader political solutions and national consensus.
According to these sources, the tensions in southern Syria, particularly between the Druze and Bedouin tribes in Suwayda, are symptomatic of a deeper crisis – the collapse of central governance and the rise of local and extremist actors.
Regional interventions, rivalries between Iran, Israel, and other powers, and deep divisions among Syria’s communities further aggravate the situation.
Security assessments suggest that unless al-Jolani’s central regime can implement real political reforms and extend control across the country – while jihadist factions grow unchecked and show no readiness to compromise with non-Sunni minorities – Syria faces a serious threat of fragmentation and descent into fierce multi-factional conflict.
Thus, Syria’s future hinges on its leadership’s ability to forge national unity, foster regional cooperation, and establish new dynamics to rebuild a coherent political framework. Without this, Syria may disintegrate into irreconcilable pieces.
Following a brutal civil war and the proliferation of actors, Syria now faces a monumental challenge of state collapse. In this context, senior security officials believe only certain essential steps can change the trajectory:
- Strengthening the central regime through genuine reform – Inclusive political cooperation across all ethnic and religious groups is needed to rebuild trust and establish an equitable, stable state framework.
- Regional and international dialogue – Efforts must be made to coordinate among regional powers, including mediation involving Israel, Iran, Russia, and Turkey, to prevent escalation and achieve political-security agreements.
- Limiting the influence of extremist groups – Terrorist and radical groups must be curbed through military, intelligence, and diplomatic means.
- Support for local communities – Economic and social development, particularly in southern Syria and other marginalized areas, is essential to prevent societal collapse and the rise of non-state actors.
- Preserving Syria’s territorial integrity – Stress on peace agreements and regional cooperation to avoid partition and dismemberment.
- Coordination with Israel – Recognizing Israel’s security apparatus as a key player in regional stability and activating diplomatic channels for secure border arrangements.
At present, al-Jolani is not protecting Syria’s minorities – unlike the deposed president Bashar al-Assad. On the contrary, he is persecuting them and committing massacres. The new constitution he issued does not mention minorities or their rights at all.
His communications with Israel are focused on seeking the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the expanded buffer zone on the Golan Heights and ending Israeli airstrikes within Syria.
In conclusion:
The events in southern Syria are a symptom of a deeper issue – the disintegration of Syria’s central governance model. In the resulting power vacuum, local conflicts are becoming flashpoints that could lead to wider fragmentation.
Israel’s security establishment views the situation with growing concern, as further collapse in Syria may yield ungovernable zones under terrorist or foreign control, jeopardizing regional stability.
Al-Jolani faces a critical task: he may attempt to stabilize the situation, but without broad support – gained through dialogue and deep political solutions – it is likely the crisis will only worsen.
The central message is clear: unless al-Jolani, as Syria’s current leader, undertakes a genuine effort to rebuild the state, Syria risks tearing itself apart – and with it, the chances for peace and stability across the region may vanish.
