The Hamas-affiliated Al-Risalah Net reported on August 22 that PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s announcement that elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council will be held on November 28 has revived the Palestinian political system.
At the center of these developments is Hamas, which is seeking to translate its influence on the ground into political power by participating in the elections and forging alliances with other Palestinian factions and political figures.
According to the report, the Hamas leadership held meetings in Istanbul with Fadwa Barghouti, the wife of senior Fatah figure Marwan Barghouti, who is imprisoned in Israel, as well as with former Palestinian foreign minister Nasser al-Qudwa.
The discussions focused on the possibility of their participation in the elections and the formation of broad national lists, rather than lists identified exclusively with a particular faction.
The talks subsequently moved to Cairo, where an initiative emerged to establish an alliance bringing together Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the reformist current within Fatah led by Mohammed Dahlan, Nasser al-Qudwa and other political forces. The door remains open to the participation of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
The site also reports that, in parallel, a first high-level meeting between Fatah and Hamas is expected in Cairo.
Fatah is expected to be represented by senior PA officials Hussein al-Sheikh, Majed Faraj and Rawhi Fattouh. The meeting could lead to broad national understandings. Still, it could also reflect an attempt by Fatah to contain a political initiative taking shape, at least partly, outside the traditional political framework.
According to Hamas, the talks are taking place against the backdrop of the weakness of the PA, the economic crisis, the war in Gaza and growing pressure in the West Bank.
The report argues that the various Palestinian factions understand that they are effectively “in the same boat” and need a political framework capable of confronting these challenges.
Nevertheless, Hamas maintains that the key remains in Mahmoud Abbas’s hands. He can set the elections in motion, but he can also postpone or cancel them.
According to Hamas, from Fatah’s and Mahmoud Abbas’s perspective, the elections carry significant risks because of internal divisions and multiple centers of power, above all the possibility that Hamas could achieve a substantial political breakthrough.
Senior Fatah officials told me that Mahmoud Abbas is determined to hold parliamentary elections followed by presidential elections to reshape the Palestinian political system and show the international community that the PA supports a democratic process for choosing its representatives.
The last Palestinian legislative elections were held in 2006, when Hamas won a majority. A year later, Hamas forcibly expelled the PA from the Gaza Strip.
According to the Fatah officials, the upcoming elections will constitute a political and strategic test of strength between the PA and Hamas. Mahmoud Abbas hopes to strengthen the PA through the process, based partly on the expectation that the Israeli Knesset elections scheduled for October could result in a change of government, potentially allowing negotiations with Israel to resume.
According to Fatah officials, Mahmoud Abbas views the Legislative Council elections as a way to restore the PA’s legitimacy. After years in which the Palestinian political system has suffered a crisis of legitimacy, they believe genuine elections, even if partial and problematic, could give the PA a new base of legitimacy among the Palestinian public and in the eyes of Western governments.
At the same time, PA President Mahmoud Abbas is seeking to prevent Hamas from participating in the elections. He has conditioned its participation on Hamas accepting the international commitments undertaken by the PLO and recognizing Israel.
Senior PA officials told me that Hamas is attempting to circumvent Mahmoud Abbas’s restrictions by participating in the upcoming elections as part of a broad coalition with other Palestinian factions, thereby strengthening its political position following what they describe as its failure in the Gaza war.
According to PA officials, elections for the Legislative Council would not immediately alter the balance of power within the PA. Even if Hamas achieved a significant electoral breakthrough, it would not necessarily mean it would take control of the Palestinian government. The Palestinian political system remains based on the presidency, security services, and governmental institutions controlled by PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
Thus, legislative elections could produce a new balance of political power, but not necessarily a change of government.
The Palestinian presidential elections, planned for the first quarter of 2027, could prove to be the truly decisive stage.
The leading candidate to replace Mahmoud Abbas, who is reportedly seeking to promote his son Yasser for the position, is senior Fatah figure Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison and enjoys considerable popularity among Palestinians.
The United States and other Western countries are demanding that the PA implement reforms, change its governing mechanisms and improve its public legitimacy. From their perspective, a reformed and more democratic Palestinian Authority is a prerequisite for any future international involvement in the political process.
Israel Is a Decisive Factor in Whether the Elections Take Place
Senior Israeli security officials say that the Shin Bet has identified increased Hamas activity in the West Bank ahead of the Legislative Council elections. Hamas, they say, is attempting to translate its strength on the ground into political power, while simultaneously intensifying incitement against Israel and its terrorist activities.
According to these officials, Hamas has not abandoned its longstanding objective of overthrowing the PA in the West Bank. They also say that Hamas is coordinating its preparations for the elections with former senior Fatah official Mohammed Dahlan, who was expelled from the Palestinian territories by Mahmoud Abbas.
Israeli security officials assess that Hamas is seeking to build a broad coalition with additional Palestinian factions and enter the elections as a significant political bloc. The new bloc’s objective would be to challenge Fatah’s dominance of the Palestinian political system.
Hamas is expected to use the elections as a means of re-entering Palestinian governing institutions, while exploiting the Palestinian Authority’s economic and political weakness.
Senior Israeli security officials are concerned about the possibility of a Hamas victory in the Legislative Council elections and a repeat of the 2006 scenario.
According to these officials, Israel should act in a calculated manner to bring about a postponement of the elections. One senior security official suggested that Israel could announce that it would not allow residents of East Jerusalem to participate in the elections, thereby increasing internal pressure within Palestinian society on Mahmoud Abbas to postpone the vote, as has happened in the past.
The Israeli concern is not merely about who wins at the ballot box. The larger question is what would happen if Hamas achieved a significant electoral breakthrough and demanded to re-enter Palestinian governing institutions.
According to Israeli security officials, if Hamas enters the elections with considerable strength in the West Bank, forms coalitions, and takes advantage of Fatah and the PA’s weakness, it could gain significant political power even without winning an outright majority.
One senior Israeli security official argues that Israel must prevent the elections, describing them as a strategic event and an attempt by Hamas to rebuild its power and gain a political reward for the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack.
According to the official, Israel should already be acting in the West Bank to disrupt Hamas’s efforts to strengthen itself ahead of the elections through arrests, the seizure of funds and the blocking of financial support to the organization. Ultimately, however, the decision rests with Israel’s political leadership.
