This article originally appeared in Hebrew in Israel Hayom on September 30, 2025.
Summary
The unfolding diplomatic maneuver centers on a White House appearance that highlighted a stark contrast between Donald Trump’s meandering performance and Benjamin Netanyahu’s more composed demeanor. While the optics suggested U.S.-Israeli alignment, the real negotiations may already have been taking place in Doha, Qatar, where Hamas leaders reportedly regroup after an assassination attempt. This echoes the earlier Trump-era agreement with the Taliban, also signed in Doha, which collapsed almost immediately after implementation.
The current situation reflects both opportunity and risk. Israel appears to have secured U.S. endorsement of its goals, but practical challenges loom. Hamas holds hostages as leverage, and any expectation of rapid release is unrealistic. The issue of Hamas surrendering weapons is especially volatile, since their survival depends on retaining arms in the face of internal clan rivalries within Gaza. These local power struggles pose a greater existential threat to Hamas than Israel itself.
The coming days could bring steps toward hostage releases, but delays and evasions are likely. History suggests that even ceremonious agreements may disintegrate quickly under the weight of entrenched political and social dynamics. While leaders may celebrate diplomatic breakthroughs, the deeper realities of power, survival, and mistrust often prove stronger than written commitments.
Anyone who expected a glittering press conference tonight at the White House got a very different show. Trump looked tired, perhaps ill, and mainly less coherent than usual, if that is even possible. The mumbling, the jumps from topic to topic, and the promises scattered in all directions like confetti turned the event into more of a diplomatic mystery than an American strategy. Netanyahu, standing beside him, was far more focused, even statesmanlike, and the gap between them was obvious. It is hard to imagine Trump convincing Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or even Jordan to sign onto Netanyahu’s wording.
Yet behind this American-Israeli scene there is another stage: Doha, Qatar. A place that already knows how to seal deals that look impossible on paper. It is very possible that this chapter in the Middle Eastern saga was already closed quietly in the corridors of a hospital in Doha, where Hamas’s external leadership may be recovering after the failed assassination attempt. When one also considers the odd anecdote about Netanyahu’s apology, some see this as no more than a complementary move to a package already finalized in Qatar, with Trump receiving guarantees before he even began speaking.
The Shadow of the Old Doha Agreement
It is hard not to recall that earlier Trump deal also signed in Doha, only with a different enemy: the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan. The deal with the Taliban in February 2020 looked then like a historic breakthrough. Mutual commitments, American forces pulling out according to an almost military timetable, Taliban promises to cut ties with al Qaeda and to begin dialogue with the Kabul government, the language of peace was grand. Within a month the balloon had burst. The Taliban returned to attacking the Afghan army, ties with al Qaeda remained, and talks with the central government limped until they disappeared. The agreement turned from golden to farcical. When hundreds of desperate Afghans clung to American airplanes, the meaning was simple: Trump had received from the Taliban a technical ceasefire with the Americans, and in return handed the country over to the Taliban.
That brings up the unavoidable question: will Doha 2.0, this time with Hamas on the stage, look different? Or is it again nothing but grains of sand that will scatter in the desert wind?
The Optimum and the Trap
For Israel, on the surface this looks like a peak of achievements. An American administration that largely adopts Israel’s wording and promises full backing is not to be taken for granted in an age of hostile public opinion and diplomatic pressure from every side. Israel has seemingly reached the optimal combination: a political-security plan tied to the declared war aims of Israel, with the White House providing a rubber stamp. Whether this will really take shape on the ground is far less clear.
Hamas holds its cards tightly: the hostages. Demanding their sweeping release within 72 hours without leaving Hamas a single bargaining tool is almost fantasy. Even if Trump and Netanyahu believe they hold a binding document, Gaza’s leaders will always find a way to avoid it. A hostage is held by a rogue clan. They need more time to locate certain captives. Or the modern version of the excuse: the computer crashed. Delay will be built into the strategy.
Weapons, Clans, and Real Fears
The issue of Hamas laying down its weapons may be the central landmine in a future agreement. Israel can insist, the United States can commit, Trump can promise in his hoarse voice, but for Hamas this is about survival. The past weeks have revealed a new reality in Gaza. The overcrowded population is moving south despite the group’s threats, its authority is slipping, and above all the greatest fear is not Iron Dome or the paratroopers but the local clans. These strong families, once the regime weakens, will try to settle personal scores and perhaps also to seize Hamas’s swollen cash reserves. This is the real threat in the eyes of Gaza’s leadership. Israel is a clear, predictable enemy. Chaos is an existential danger.
What’s Next?
Days of upheaval lie ahead. Perhaps the first terms for the release of some hostages will already be set this week. Perhaps the effect will be delayed and the familiar Palestinian evasions will continue. It is not impossible that before the cameras even flashed at the White House the most important chapter was already written in Doha. And if history teaches anything it is that even an agreement signed with great ceremony can fade away into the sounds of explosions from hospitals, mosques and neighborhoods in southern Gaza.
Everyone hopes that the agreement will take form and be implemented, and that the hostages will come home. Yet what is common to the two Doha agreements, the Taliban one and this one developing with Hamas, is the temptation to embrace an illusion: that a well-publicized ceremony and a detailed text can change complex political and social realities. In truth, deeper dynamics are stronger and more consistent than any piece of paper. Trump may have looked tired in front of the cameras, but the real exhaustion belongs to the entire world facing once again this tragicomic repetition.
