Summary
Iran is navigating a fragile moment marked by cautious diplomacy abroad and mounting economic and social pressures at home. Nuclear talks offer a limited opening, yet sanctions, regional tensions, and domestic political divisions constrain outcomes. Economic adjustments are driving sharp increases in living costs, while symbolic relief measures fail to offset public anxiety. Together, these dynamics create a volatile balance in which small shifts could have outsized consequences.
Key Takeaways
- Diplomatic engagement with the United States is narrowly focused on the nuclear issue and sanctions relief, while deep mistrust and external pressure continue to shape policy choices.
- Economic reforms are advancing rapidly but are intensifying inflation and public hardship, exposing structural weaknesses that short-term measures cannot resolve.
- Social capital is eroding as political polarization, protest fatigue, and limited responsiveness to public demands strain the relationship between society and the state.
The public discourse in Iran at present is marked by a pervasive sense of “the calm before the storm.” The state is attempting to navigate between renewed diplomatic engagement with Washington and severe economic and security pressures at home and abroad. While reformist and moderate media outlets seek to cultivate cautious optimism around the talks in Muscat, the conservative press underscores deep mistrust of the West and stresses the need to preserve military strength as an almost singular guarantee of Iranian sovereignty.
The Nuclear Issue and Negotiations with the West / IAEA
At the center of current reporting is a round of indirect talks held in Muscat, Oman, between Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi and envoys of Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Araghchi has described the opening of the talks as a “good start,” while emphasizing that the process of building trust remains long and complex.
The Iranian position, as reflected in the press, is unequivocal. Negotiations are confined strictly to the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions, with a categorical rejection of any attempt to expand the agenda to include the missile program or Iran’s regional role. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Araghchi stated that uranium enrichment is, in Tehran’s view, an absolute right that must continue, and that even military strikes have failed to eliminate capabilities developed over many years.
At the same time, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has signaled readiness to resume monitoring of key facilities. Iranian officials stress that the renewal of regulated and mutually agreed oversight is an essential prerequisite for any agreement that could reassure markets and the international community regarding Iran’s intentions.
Foreign and Regional Policy
The regional and international arena presents a paradox. On the one hand, there is a renewed American invitation to negotiations. On the other, economic and military pressure is intensifying. Shortly after the Muscat talks, Trump signed an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on any country that trades with Iran, a move portrayed as another element of the “maximum pressure” policy.
Simultaneously, concern is growing in Tehran over Israeli efforts to undermine diplomacy. Iranian media claim that Israel is seeking to broaden discussions in Washington to include not only the nuclear file but also missiles and regional involvement, thereby constraining the mediators.
Iran, for its part, is attempting to embed the talks with Washington within a broader regional framework. Reports point to ongoing consultations with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt aimed at creating a “regional consensus” in support of stability and the prevention of escalation into a large-scale military confrontation. The message is clear. Iran is no longer pursuing isolated bilateral negotiations, but rather an effort to incorporate key regional actors as a stabilizing and moderating force.
Domestic Politics
On the domestic front, the government of Masoud Pezeshkian is facing growing criticism for inefficiency and detachment from public sentiment. The concept of “Vefaq,” or national consensus, which the president sought to make a defining feature of his administration, is now being tested by hardline factions in the Majles that view the mere resumption of negotiations as a sign of weakness.
Foreign Minister Araghchi has openly called for internal unity, arguing that a successful foreign policy requires genuine domestic consensus and not only outward-facing statements. In contrast, commentators and academics describe an opposite dynamic. Political science professor Mohammad Mehdi Mojahedi has coined the term “autism syndrome of governance,” referring to a political system that has lost the ability to hear societal voices, retreats inward, and favors repression over addressing underlying problems.
Judiciary Chief Mohseni Ejei has sought a balancing approach, speaking of the need to distinguish between “people who made mistakes” during recent protest events and “elements guided by the enemy.” This discourse reflects an attempt to soften the image of the judicial system while maintaining the narrative of an external threat as the primary lens through which protest movements are interpreted.
Economy
Economically, the situation is widely described as “surgery without anesthesia.” The Pezeshkian government is advancing a policy of unifying exchange rates, abolishing the preferential currency, and shifting the economy to a single, higher rate. This move has immediately translated into sharp increases in the cost of living. Recent price indices show an especially steep rise in food prices, approaching 90 percent annual inflation in the food basket.
Economic experts warn that support for domestic production remains the Achilles’ heel of the Iranian economy. Without deep structural reforms in credit allocation, subsidies, and budgetary structure, persistent deficits will continue to fuel inflation and erode purchasing power.
The government has attempted to project control and create a limited “sense of welfare.” It has announced an increase in the holiday bonus for state employees to 10 million tomans and has highlighted official data pointing to new records in oil exports despite sanctions. Against the backdrop of rapidly rising prices, many view these measures as little more than a superficial remedy for a systemic problem.
Society, Protest, Women, Human Rights, and Culture
Social discourse continues to bear the scars of the deadly wave of protests in December and January. Media outlets increasingly warn of the “erosion of social capital” and a growing sense of lost prospects among younger generations. Sociologist Taghi Hoshyari Aramaki describes a “quiet withdrawal of the middle class from politics.” A social group that once mediated between society and the state is retreating, leaving the field to a direct confrontation between state power structures and the broader public.
In the area of women’s rights, one of the most visible recent developments is the announcement that motorcycle driving licenses will now be issued to women. The move is presented as a signal of partial openness and as a tangible, though largely symbolic, response to mounting social pressure.
In the cultural sphere, the 44th Fajr Film Festival has emerged as an implicit platform for social critique. Filmmakers and cinema professionals, within the constraints of censorship, are attempting to give voice to everyday public hardships and to depict the gap between official rhetoric and lived reality.
Conclusion
Overall, Iranian discourse at this juncture reflects a state standing at a dangerous crossroads. On one side lies a diplomatic window of opportunity in Muscat and promises of economic reform. On the other stand runaway inflation, the erosion of social capital, and a political system increasingly accused of being deaf to public concerns. The sense of “the calm before the storm” is therefore not merely metaphorical. It describes a situation in which any forward move, or a single serious miscalculation, could push the system directly into the storm itself.
