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Is Hizbullah Preparing a Takeover in Lebanon?

By threatening to collapse the Lebanese government from within while doubling down on a perpetual war footing with Israel, Hizbullah is signaling that it will risk a total domestic political breakdown before it ever agrees to give up its weapons.
Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem. (Hizbullah media)

Table of Contents

Summary

The speech delivered on “Resistance and Liberation Day” reflected a more confrontational stance by Hizbullah amid political and military pressure in Lebanon. Naim Qassem rejected demands to dismantle Hizbullah’s arsenal, accused Lebanese authorities of aligning with Israeli and American interests, and warned of internal unrest if the group were challenged. He also emphasized continued resistance against Israel, defended Hizbullah’s financial institutions, and projected confidence in the group’s long-term endurance despite sanctions and conflict. The analysis suggests the rhetoric resembles tensions that preceded the 2008 Beirut clashes and could signal future instability within Lebanon.

Key Takeaways

  • Hizbullah leader Naim Qassem strongly rejected any effort to disarm the organization, framing its weapons as essential to Lebanon’s survival and resistance against Israel.
  • The speech included direct warnings toward the Lebanese government, including threats of public mobilization and confrontation if authorities moved against Hizbullah or pursued direct negotiations with Israel.
  • The address portrayed the conflict with Israel as existential and long term, while linking developments in Lebanon to broader regional dynamics, including U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Hizbullah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s televised address on May 24, 2026, delivered on “Resistance and Liberation Day,” marked a sharp and aggressive escalation in his rhetoric. He delivered the remarks during a speech commemorating May 25, 2000, the day Israel unilaterally withdrew from southern Lebanon after 18 years of occupation. Facing intense internal pressure within Lebanon and an ongoing military conflict with Israel, Qassem focused his speech on domestic threats, an absolute refusal to disarm, and his ideological narrative regarding Israel’s future.

With the Lebanese government recently declaring Hizbullah’s military apparatus illegal and preparing for direct, independent talks with Israel in Washington, Qassem issued stern warnings to Beirut. He stated that Lebanese authorities “do not have the right to act as they please” and explicitly threatened the state’s stability by declaring, “The people have the right to take to the streets to topple the government” and confront the Israeli-American project targeting the country’s institutions. He warned the state against taking positions opposed to the “resistance” or making diplomatic concessions to the United States and Israel, insisting instead on indirect negotiations. Qassem warned that Hizbullah “will confront with all [its] strength all those who confront it.” He added, “If this government is unable to ensure sovereignty, it should go.”

Qassem completely rejected mounting domestic and international demands for Hizbullah to hand over its arsenal to the Lebanese state, framing the issue as a matter of survival. He argued that a state monopoly on weapons is an “Israeli project” designed to target his group. Qassem also renewed calls for the Lebanese state to “abandon direct negotiations with the Israeli enemy” and instead “pursue a national consensus.” He claimed that surrendering weapons would strip Lebanon of its defensive capability and lead to the country’s “extermination” and gradual occupation. Framing the conflict as an existential battle, he asserted that the group would not retreat regardless of destruction or casualties, stating that they are fighting toward “one of two outcomes: victory or martyrdom.”

“Lebanese authorities tell us: Help us disarm you so Israel can then come in, kill you and displace your people as well as the Lebanese,” Qassem said. “To hand over our weapons is to be annihilated!” the Hizbullah leader declared, describing the group as engaged in an “existential war.” “Disarming the Resistance means depriving Lebanon of its defensive capability, its strength in negotiations and in protecting its wealth and existence.”

Qassem argued that “what is happening is not someone else’s war, but a war that targets our existence…” He reiterated that Hizbullah “will not surrender, even if the whole world unites against [it],” and said its “drones will continue to track enemy Israeli soldiers” in southern Lebanon.

“We will confront with all our strength and without hesitation Israel as well as all those who fight us at its side,” he added, in an apparent warning to the Lebanese authorities. “Tell me what you have done over a year and a half [the period of the initial ceasefire between Hizbullah and Israel from 2024 until 2026]; and if you are incapable, then leave.”

Qassem also referred to what he described as an “attack on al-Qard al-Hassan” [Hizbullah’s main banking and financial institution] as an assault on hundreds of thousands of poor and low-income people, portraying efforts to shut down the institution as “an Israeli-American project” that Hizbullah would resist. He further insisted that U.S. sanctions “will not weaken the Resistance,” days after unprecedented measures were announced against Hizbullah officials, members of the Amal Movement, and security officials accused of colluding with the militia.

It is no coincidence that Qassem deliberately avoided addressing Israel’s renewed occupation of southern Lebanon, an occupation triggered by his militia’s role as a “support front” for Iran and as retaliation for Israel’s elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Instead, Qassem sought to project strength and shape a narrative of long-term victory. He described Israel as an expansionist enemy seeking to establish the “Greater Israel project” and dominate the entire region, while claiming that Israel’s decline had already begun. He pointed to Hizbullah’s battlefield tactics, particularly First-Person View (FPV) drones, which he said had made Israel “dizzy,” as evidence of the group’s enduring capabilities.

Qassem linked the resolution of the conflict to broader geopolitical developments, expressing hope that ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, sponsored by Pakistani mediators, would conclude with a comprehensive ceasefire package that would legally include a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon.

Qassem’s speech reflects a leadership that is both cornered and defiant. By threatening to destabilize the Lebanese government from within while doubling down on a permanent war footing with Israel, Hizbullah is signaling that it would risk total domestic political collapse before agreeing to surrender its weapons. As further evidence of this posture, Hizbullah militiamen, ignoring army warnings against the use of firearms in the capital, spent the night in Beirut’s Dahiya district firing into the air in celebration and displays of triumph.

Naim Qassem’s rhetoric recalls the events preceding May 7, 2008, when Hizbullah’s militia seized control of western Beirut and the Druze Mountain in a move against the government of Fouad Siniora after it decided to dismantle the group’s independent fiber-optic network and dismiss security officials aligned with it. Drawing a parallel to those events, it is possible that an agreement favorable to Iran and/or progress in Lebanese-Israeli negotiations could embolden Hizbullah and increase the likelihood of a similar confrontation with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government.

FAQ
Why did Naim Qassem reject calls to disarm Hizbullah?
He argued that surrendering Hizbullah’s weapons would leave Lebanon vulnerable to Israeli attacks and undermine what he described as the country’s defensive capability.
What threats were directed at the Lebanese government?
The speech warned that people could take to the streets to topple the government if authorities acted against Hizbullah or aligned too closely with U.S. and Israeli policies.
How did the speech connect Lebanon’s situation to regional politics?
The remarks linked Hizbullah’s future to broader geopolitical developments, particularly ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and the wider confrontation with Israel.

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
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