Senior security officials say that during the negotiations held in Switzerland between the United States and Iran, Washington effectively accepted Tehran’s demand to link the Lebanese arena to the broader regional framework, under the principle of the “unity of fronts” between Iran and Lebanon. Not only does Israel oppose this approach, but so does the Lebanese government, which is struggling to preserve its sovereignty.
According to these officials, Iran extracted significant concessions from the United States. Tehran reportedly pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to international shipping as long as calm prevails in Lebanon and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) halt all operations against Hizbullah. Washington, they say, agreed to these terms.
Furthermore, the United States reportedly accepted Iran’s demand to establish a “Lebanon Deconfliction Mechanism” as part of a broader regional ceasefire arrangement involving Qatar and Pakistan. Both countries are viewed by critics as aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood axis and are expected to play a role in overseeing the implementation of the agreement.
This mechanism would be tasked with monitoring compliance with the ceasefire in Lebanon and the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.
In practice, its primary objective would be to ensure an end to Israeli operations targeting Hizbullah’s military capabilities and, eventually, to facilitate a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, following Washington’s commitment in the memorandum to uphold Lebanon’s territorial integrity.
On June 22, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that the IDF would remain in Lebanon and would not withdraw.
However, senior diplomatic officials believe this issue could trigger a direct confrontation between Israel and the United States following Washington’s signing of the memorandum of understanding with Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump addressed Netanyahu’s statement on June 22 regarding Israel’s refusal to withdraw its forces from Lebanon. “We’ll look into that,” Trump told reporters. “I’m not going to tell you how I’ll solve it, but I solve problems. I solve problems quickly, including with Bibi.”
Senior security officials fear that American pressure on Israel regarding Lebanon will intensify, potentially undermining the IDF’s ability to protect its troops deployed there and, ultimately, its capacity to defend northern Israeli communities from Hizbullah anti-tank missile attacks and potential incursions by the Radwan Force into Israeli territory.
At present, the IDF is defending northern Israel from positions deep inside Lebanese territory and from the security buffer zone it has established. However, security officials warn that the writing may already be on the wall: they fear that Washington’s willingness to accommodate Hizbullah’s demands will eventually lead to an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and enable Hizbullah to rebuild its military strength.
Meanwhile, the IDF remains largely static in southern Lebanon, operating under restrictions on the use of live fire. It is unable to advance further, while Hizbullah continues to monitor Israeli movements, gather intelligence, and prepare for potential surprise attacks.
The IDF’s efforts to destroy Hizbullah’s strategic infrastructure, including the vast underground network in the Ali Taher ridge area, have also reportedly been halted as a result of the understandings reached between Washington and Tehran during the Swiss talks.
It remains unclear whether the IDF will ultimately be permitted to destroy these facilities, what fate awaits the dozens of Hizbullah operatives reportedly trapped within the fortified complex, and whether the United States will pressure Israel to transfer responsibility for the site to the Lebanese Army.
For now, both Israel’s political leadership and the military maintain a firm position: Israel has no intention of withdrawing to the international border and must, at a minimum, retain control of the area known as the “Yellow Line” in order to protect northern communities. At the same time, Iran is increasing pressure on Washington and insisting on a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, along with the return of all Lebanese residents to their villages in southern Lebanon and to homes damaged or destroyed during the conflict.
