- The Israeli security establishment is increasingly concerned about developments in Syria and the possibility of Turkey assuming control, which could pose a significant new threat to Israel.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is positioning jihadist Islam as a vehicle for political Islam, aiming to establish influence over Syria.
- Turkey’s primary goal in Syria is the eradication of the Kurdish presence.
Rising Turkish Influence in Syria: A National Security Concern
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, senior Israeli security officials have expressed alarm over Turkey’s growing involvement in the region.
According to the Jacob Nagel Committee’s report on Israel’s defense budget, published on January 6, 2025, Turkey’s ambitions to “restore the Ottoman crown to its former glory” present a pressing security challenge.
The report underscores the potential for new threats to Israel stemming from Syria’s changing landscape. It highlights the possibility of an extremist Syrian regime with an anti-Israel ideology replacing Assad’s government.
This scenario, the report warns, could be even more dangerous than the Iranian threat, given Syria’s geographic proximity and strategic significance. Turkish military presence and political ambitions in Syria could destabilize the region and create direct security challenges for Israel.
The report warns of a scenario where Turkey sponsors Syrian proxy forces hostile to Israel, effectively extending Turkey’s influence and increasing regional instability.
Erdogan’s Ottoman Aspirations and the Syrian Connection
President Erdogan’s rhetoric has fueled concerns about his intentions in Syria. Speaking at the eighth conference of his Justice and Development Party, Erdogan remarked, “If the region had not been divided after World War I, cities like Aleppo, Sham, Hama, and Homs would still be part of Turkey.”
Turkish opposition sources suggest Erdogan’s policies aim to revive the Ottoman Caliphate through strategic control over Syria.
Reports in the Turkish press indicate plans to establish military bases in Syria equipped with air defense systems, ostensibly to protect against Israeli airstrikes.
Erdogan has also pledged support to Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the new de facto ruler of Syria, by providing weapons and assistance in building a Syrian army to replace forces weakened by Israeli strikes.
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani: Erdogan’s “Secret Weapon”
Western intelligence sources allege that Turkey played a significant role in toppling Assad’s regime.
Turkish support for the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) organization, led by al-Jolani, has been instrumental in reshaping Syria’s power dynamics.
Since 2017, Turkey has armed and supported these groups, facilitated the movement of jihadist fighters into Syria, and worked to transition al-Jolani’s group from a jihadist organization to a political entity aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Security officials in Israel describe al-Jolani’s transformation as Erdogan’s strategy to exert control over Syria.
Renaming himself Ahmed al-Sharaa, al-Jolani now leads what he portrays as a transitional government, emphasizing the rule of law, constitutional governance, and free elections modeled on Turkey’s political system.
Challenges to the Muslim Brotherhood’s Governance in Syria
The Assad regime’s secular governance over five decades contrasts starkly with the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood’s influence under al-Jolani has already sparked opposition among Syrians, particularly due to efforts to introduce Sharia law into schools and public life.
Popular resistance to these changes echoes the Brotherhood’s failures in Tunisia and Egypt, where economic challenges and public opposition led to its downfall.
While Erdogan’s ambitions for Syria remain ambitious, the Brotherhood’s long-term success is far from guaranteed.
Having experienced freedom after Assad’s dictatorship, Syrians may resist transitioning to another form of authoritarian rule under Islamic law.
The Threat Turkey Poses to Israel
The Turkish army, one of the largest and most formidable in the Middle East, represents a significant challenge to Israel’s security. Among its strongest branches is the Turkish Navy. The Turkish military comprises 425,000 active personnel and an additional 380,000 reservists. According to security sources, Turkey’s growing influence in Syria as a dominant force necessitates serious consideration of its military capabilities.
Pro-Turkish militias in Syria, such as the “Syrian National Army” (SNA), pose a potential threat to Israel, particularly along the Syrian-Israeli border. President Erdogan could also leverage groups like HTS led by al-Jolani, against Israel. Al-Jolani, known for his inflammatory rhetoric, once declared: “With God’s help, we will not only reach Damascus; Jerusalem is waiting for us.”
Erdogan himself has issued direct threats. On July 28, 2024, at a conference of the Justice and Development Party, he stated: “As we entered Karabakh and Libya, we will do the same to Israel.”
Western intelligence sources suggest Erdogan harbors ambitions of reviving the Ottoman Empire, seeking to position himself as a modern-day sultan or caliph overseeing Sunni forces in the Middle East, including Jerusalem, which was once part of the Ottoman Empire.
Turkey’s Policy Toward Kurds in Syria
Turkey’s primary goal in Syria is the eradication of the Kurdish presence.
U.S. sources report that Turkey has amassed substantial military forces along its border with Syria, potentially preparing for an invasion of northeastern Syria, home to the Syrian Kurds.
The Kurds in this region, who played a critical role in combating ISIS, are apprehensive about a renewed Turkish offensive.
Their fears are heightened by the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal of the 2,000 American troops currently providing air and intelligence support.
This concern stems from a similar situation in 2019, when U.S. forces withdrew, allowing Turkey to launch a cross-border operation.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, declared on December 16, 2024, that “the elimination of the Kurds in Syria is a strategic goal of Turkey.”
A Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, reported on December 17, 2024, that Ankara has outlined a four-step strategy to neutralize the Kurdish presence in Syria, targeting the “Kurdish Defense Units,” which Turkey associates with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization in Turkey.
The plan includes:
- The departure of Kurdish fighters from Europe and Iraq currently in Syria.
- The removal of Kurdish commanders from Syria.
- The disarmament of Kurdish fighters and their reintegration into civilian life.
- Ensuring Kurdish representation in a future Syrian government.
Turkey’s overarching strategy aims to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish-controlled entity in northern Syria, which it views as a terrorist threat.
This plan may involve a military incursion into Syrian territory to create a 900-kilometer buffer zone along the Turkey-Syria border, intended to thwart any Kurdish infiltration into Turkish territory.
Simultaneously, Turkish intelligence is cracking down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) domestically, arresting its leaders and pressuring Abdullah Öcalan, the party’s founder, to disband the organization.
Conclusion
Turkey’s growing influence in Syria, driven by Erdogan’s vision of restoring Ottoman glory, poses a complex challenge to Israel’s security and the broader Middle East.
While Turkey’s role in reshaping Syria’s political and military landscape continues to unfold, the resilience of the Syrian people and their resistance to Islamist rule may yet determine the outcome of Erdogan’s ambitions.
