This article was originally published on June 15, 2025 in Israel Hayom (Hebrew).
When the well runs dry, everyone regrets not storing water.
– Persian proverb
June 2025, the summer is already scorching, and Tehran wakes to another morning of sirens. A long, winding queue forms at one of many gas stations. Drivers are anxious, some leaving their cars running while seeking shade. Conversations revolve around one issue – will they manage to fill their tanks? No talk of supporting the regime, no discussions of steadfastness – only fear, hopelessness, and despair.
Iran’s Skies Lit by Anti-Aircraft Fire
They watch the rising smoke, haunted by images reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq War, which ended in August 1988, and the ayatollahs’ promise of no more wars. They hear reports of severe strikes on strategic facilities. Israel delivers a series of airstrikes targeting the heart of Iran’s power – nuclear facilities, missile depots, Revolutionary Guard bases, and control centers. The Iranian regime responds with heavy missile barrages aimed at Israel’s population centers – a turning point in the ongoing conflict between the “Axis” and Israel.
Iran – The Skeleton of a Regional Empire
Until October 2024, Iran was still considered a regional powerhouse, dictating the terms. The product of the “ring of fire” cultivated by the charismatic former Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani assassinated in 2020, it is now a collapsing structure. Hizbullah is defeated, Syria has fallen to Sunni forces hostile to Shiites, militias in Iraq are weakened. The Houthis in Yemen, perhaps the most active proxy, are failing to deliver and are themselves under attack. Allies Russia and China offer feeble condemnations but do not come to Iran’s aid. Iran stands isolated.
Yet Iran still possesses a significant arsenal of precise ballistic missiles. Khorramshahr-4 missiles, with a range of up to 2,000 km and capable of carrying 1,500 kg warheads, can threaten Israel’s heartland. Other models like Zolfaghar and Dezful – short-range and accurate – serve as leverage for pressure and retaliation.
The nuclear program has been damaged but not destroyed. Iran still holds about six tons of low-enriched uranium and roughly 400 kg enriched to 60% – enough to enable technological recovery within months if it chooses to cross the threshold.
The Regime at Home – Under the Shadow of Anger and Apathy
For years, the regime successfully suppressed popular uprisings. In 2009 (the Green Revolution), Basij forces fired on protesters. In 2019, fuel price hikes led to 1,500 civilian deaths during protests. In 2022, following Mahsa Amini’s killing, another wave of rage erupted but was again crushed. The West, particularly the United States, stood by and did nothing. But now, in 2025, support for the regime is waning even among once-loyal groups: youth, businesspeople, and even parts of the religious establishment.
The Conclusion: No Turning Back – Only a Decisive Blow
The battered and bruised Iranian regime is likely to react like a wounded animal – unpredictably. Precisely for this reason, Israel – and the West – must understand: no premature return to negotiations, no allowing the regime to recover. This is a historic moment of opportunity.
The primary goal now is to topple the regime. Iran’s oil industry is the lifeblood of its economy. Iran currently exports about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day, generating tens of billions of dollars that fund the security apparatus, the nuclear program, and, above all, the pockets of regime insiders, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, who pocket 30% of the profits, leaving the collapsing economy to languish. Striking refineries, production facilities, and the Kharg Island maritime terminal would break the backbone of the Islamic Revolution and drive the masses to the streets.
The Time to Act – Don’t Be Tempted by Dialogue
Trump wants to return to the negotiating table, and so do the Iranians. Soon, they may realize for the first time that they are out of cards to play. They will seek to end the current conflict before a popular uprising erupts. Here, Israel must harness the U.S. administration for one purpose – toppling the regime through simultaneous economic and military pressure, alongside tangible, widespread support for any sparks of civil unrest in Iran.
Israel – and the West – must understand: the ayatollah regime needs a timeout. We need a decisive victory.
