After the Targeting of Ismail Haniyeh, the Battle for Hamas Leadership Begins

The targeting of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran has triggered a battle for succession within the organization. Khaled Mashal, who previously held the position of head of the political bureau for many years, is the leading candidate to replace him.

Hamas must establish a mechanism to choose Haniyeh’s successor.

Mashal, who has been in conflict with Sinwar and other military leaders in Gaza since the 2014 war, will strive to maintain the organization’s decision-making center abroad and reduce Sinwar’s influence.

The targeting of Haniyeh by Israel has left a significant vacuum in Hamas’s leadership.

The organization is now preparing to appoint a temporary leader until internal elections can be held, likely after the end of the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip.

According to Hamas sources, three leading candidates are in contention to succeed Haniyeh.

They are Khaled Mashal, head of Hamas abroad; Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip; and Zaher al Jabarin, head of the military wing of Hamas in Judea and Samaria operating in Turkey and the organization’s “economic brain.”

All three are members of Hamas’s political bureau.

Khaled Mashal, born in Silwad near Ramallah in 1956, joined the Muslim Brotherhood in 1971 and played a role in the founding of Hamas.

He was elected head of Hamas’s political bureau in 1996 and served until 2017, when Ismail Haniyeh succeeded him. Mashal survived a targeting attempt by the Israeli Mossad in Jordan in 1996.

Mashal lives in Qatar. He has extensive regional and international experience and was elected head of Hamas abroad in 2021.

Yahya Sinwar, born in the Khan Yunis refugee camp in 1962, was elected leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and head of its military wing in 2017 and again in 2021.

He served as head of Hamas’s security apparatus, “Majd,” during the first intifada, which hunted and executed collaborators with Israel.

Sinwar controls Hamas’s military wing in Gaza and was a central planner of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israeli communities along the Gaza border.

Zaher al Jabarin, born in 1968 in Salfit, Samaria, was recruited into Hamas’s military wing. He was arrested during the first intifada, released in 2011 as part of the Shalit prisoner deal, and set up his office in Turkey. He worked with Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in Beirut in January 2024. Today, al Jabarin’s financial and investment acumen has earned him the reputation of Hamas’s “CEO.” According to a Wall Street Journal profile, he oversees a “financial empire that the United States estimates is worth hundreds of millions of dollars and funds Hamas’s operations against Israel.”¹

Who Is the Leading Contender?

Within Hamas, the prevailing opinion is that Khaled Mashal will be chosen as Haniyeh’s temporary successor due to his previous experience and the challenging situation in Gaza, which has caused widespread anger towards Yahya Sinwar following the October 7 events.

Zaher al Jabarin, who recently inherited Saleh al-Arouri’s position after Israel killed him in Beirut, is seen as lacking the necessary political experience.

Iran opposes Khaled Mashal’s election as the temporary successor and is expected to attempt to thwart his appointment.

Mashal opposes the military and political alliance between Hamas and Shiite Iran, favoring stronger ties with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood axis led by Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan.

Should Israel succeed in eliminating Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, Mashal’s chances of securing the position could increase.

Ultimately, the Shura Council of Hamas will decide on Haniyeh’s temporary successor until internal elections are held. Some members of the Shura Council have been killed in the conflict, while others are hiding in tunnels in Gaza.

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