- The Hamas movement is preparing for the decisive battle in Gaza City and the central refugee camps, yet refuses to surrender.
- Hamas holds several survival cards: the hostages, the tunnels, and its control over humanitarian aid.
- Senior Israeli security officials stress that victory in the Gaza Strip requires far more than territorial conquest; it demands the complete dismantling of Hamas’s military and governing apparatus.
The military wing of Hamas in Gaza, led by current commander Izz al-Din al-Haddad and his deputy Raed Saad, is preparing for the critical Israeli offensive against Gaza City and the central refugee camps – Hamas’s two remaining strongholds in the Strip. According to Hamas officials, they believe Israel is indeed determined to conquer the entire Gaza Strip. Yet Hamas has no intention of raising the white flag. Even if these two bastions fall, its military wing will continue waging guerrilla warfare from the tunnels against Israeli forces.
Security sources assess that Hamas still retains several bargaining chips that could help ensure its survival, even should Israel conquer the Strip:
A. Capacity for adaptation
Despite the escalating destruction, Hamas demonstrates remarkable resilience, adapting to severe losses – including the killing of senior leaders – while maintaining its presence within Gaza’s social fabric under dire conditions.
B. The hostage card
So long as Hamas continues to hold Israeli hostages – alive or dead – it believes it possesses an “insurance policy” for its survival in Gaza. Hamas has indicated willingness to release some hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, a 60-day ceasefire, and the influx of massive humanitarian aid into the Strip. For Hamas, such a deal represents the lesser of evils: it gains time to regroup militarily, calm public anger in Gaza, recruit new fighters, and strengthen its defenses in preparation for the final battle over Gaza.
C. The tunnel network
Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, in both people and construction. Hamas has built a vast underground military infrastructure – dubbed the “metro” – stretching hundreds of kilometers, enabling the movement and concealment of fighters, weapons, and command centers.
The tunnels give Hamas defenders a tactical edge, blunting Israel’s aerial and intelligence superiority. Nearly two years into the war, Hamas still maintains an extensive network of tunnels across Gaza. Israeli forces have managed to destroy only about 30 percent of them since the conflict began.
This massive system enables Hamas to continue launching operations, manufacturing simple weapons underground – rockets, IEDs, and mortars – often repurposing unexploded Israeli bombs dropped during airstrikes.
D. Control of humanitarian aid
All humanitarian aid entering Gaza through the UN and international organizations ultimately falls under Hamas’s control. The group hoards the most valuable portions, distributing or selling the remainder in Gaza’s markets at exorbitant prices. Proceeds are used to pay salaries for Hamas fighters and to recruit new operatives. Israeli security sources estimate that since the war began, Hamas has profited by more than one billion dollars through its forcible control of humanitarian aid – including food, medicine, and fuel.
E. Israel’s partial intelligence picture and targeting challenges
Despite Israel’s intelligence dominance, it struggles to locate leaders in real time, particularly when they operate from tunnels. Hamas employs camouflage and deception tactics, and uses civilians as human shields. Much of Israel’s intelligence relies on human sources (HUMINT), who are often compromised or pressured by Hamas.
Conclusion
Since 2007, and up to October 2023, Hamas systematically prepared for a full-scale confrontation with Israel: constructing the tunnel network, stockpiling weapons, and training thousands of fighters for prolonged warfare. The movement is prepared to pay a heavy price in the loss of its fighters and civilian casualties, relying on continued popular support in Gaza rooted in the ideology of resistance and jihad.
Senior Israeli security officials emphasize that the defeat of Hamas is not achieved merely through territorial conquest – taking Gaza City and the central refugee camps – but requires the complete dismantling of its military power and governing system. Even if Israel captures these areas, maintaining control will demand either prolonged Israeli presence in Gaza or the establishment of a stable alternative authority.
The U.S. administration, in coordination with Israel, has already begun discussions regarding Gaza’s future after the war. Diplomatic sources in Jerusalem view this as a positive sign of President Trump’s support for Israel’s position: the necessity of decisively defeating Hamas and toppling its rule.
