This article appeared on Israel’s Channel 12 news website in Hebrew on February 12, 2026.
Summary
A significant strategic pivot has taken place in U.S. policy toward Iran, moving beyond nuclear concerns to challenging the regime itself. The approach is described as a phased plan that includes shaping public justification, applying economic and diplomatic pressure, and preparing for possible prolonged military action. Negotiations are framed as part of a broader strategy rather than a genuine path to compromise. Growing internal unrest within Iran is viewed as a key element that could determine the ultimate outcome.
Key Takeaways
- A strategic shift has occurred from focusing on nuclear containment to targeting the core structure of Iran’s ruling regime.
- The unfolding process is portrayed as a staged strategy involving public justification, economic and diplomatic pressure, and ultimately a sustained military campaign.
- Internal unrest and weakening public fear within Iran are seen as critical factors that could amplify the impact of external pressure and potential military action.
Anyone searching for the decisive American moment vis-à-vis Iran need not wait for an official announcement from the White House since that moment has already occurred. It did not take place at the Pentagon, nor in Congress, nor at the Security Council. It happened at Mar-a-Lago. There, far from the cameras, a profound conceptual shift took place: moving from discussions about nuclear weapons and missiles to a principled decision to strike at the regime itself.
This point is critical to understanding what we have seen in recent days, and especially what we are likely to see soon. This is not a random escalation, nor a series of impulsive reactions; it is a managed and carefully planned event, advancing according to clearly defined stages.
The first stage is already behind us: the campaign of the slain. A continuous flood of death tolls, harrowing footage, and testimonies seeping out following a partial reopening of the internet. This is not happening by chance. The United States, being the United States, needs a smoking gun, a casus belli, a justification for war. Americans require a moral and political rationale to legitimize a broader move. The images emerging from Iran now are not meant only to shock; they are meant to prepare.
The second stage is already unfolding: talk of a siege. Not a classic siege in the style of Venezuela, but the creation of a sense of tightening suffocation. And here it is important to be precise: the Iranian regime is accustomed to living under sanctions. It has built an economy adapted to scarcity, self-production, and workarounds. Therefore, a siege alone will not bring down the regime. Nevertheless, it creates a smokescreen, an appearance of pressure, a sense that diplomacy is underway. It is a pattern Trump has used repeatedly.
Then comes the third stage: discourse. Negotiations, talks, call it what you will. Iran is the world champion of the bazaar. It will talk, threaten, deliver speeches, while simultaneously sending quiet messages and asking for time. However, the terms placed on the table will be such that the Iranian regime cannot accept them. Not because it does not want to, but because it simply cannot. The real demand is not the dismantling of the nuclear program, but the dismantling of the regime’s very essence, and the radical Shiite regime in Tehran cannot agree to its own dissolution.
Here the central element comes into play: surprise. The strike, when it comes, will not be a symbolic event nor a one-night operation. This is not Venezuela, nor Maduro. It will be a prolonged aerial campaign, sustained over time, with repeated waves of strikes targeting regime symbols, Revolutionary Guard headquarters, the Basij, and the infrastructure of control and repression. Most of the action will take place from the air, and some of it by means better left unspoken. The objective is not merely to damage military capability, but to create conditions under which the people take to the streets.
And here the hard truth must be stated plainly: the Iranian people have been abandoned. Months of disconnection, unemployment, commercial collapse, and wages not paid at all. Now a generation with nothing left to lose is beginning to take to the streets, people recording farewell messages, people who have lost their homes, families, and livelihoods. In effect, the barrier of fear has been broken, and this is not a wave that can be turned back. Even if it subsides momentarily, another wave will follow.
Trump has reached a historic crossroads. Either he enters the history books as the one who freed the Middle East from an extremist regime that destabilizes the global order, or he falls into the Iranian trap of delays, prolonged talks, and stalling tactics. With a window of opportunity limited by the midterm elections, and with the understanding that what began on October 7 was a broad Iranian attempt to destroy Israel through proxies, the moment of decision is approaching. Perhaps not this week, but soon, most likely very soon.
