The temporary cessation of fighting in Lebanon is imperative for Israel, essential to reorganize, draw conclusions, and reflect on the next steps. A truce is always fragile but it is preferable to hostilities. Hizbullah dares proclaim it achieved “a great victory” but it finds itself isolated. It has lost its leaders, a large part of its fighters, its powerful military arsenal, its destructive missiles,1 and above all the trust of the Lebanese. Deeply wounded and abandoned, they can no longer count on Hizbullah to defend their country and live in security. However, let us be realistic; no one is fooled as to Hizbullah’s true intentions. We know well its tricks and tactics. It will undoubtedly reorganize for a second round and continue the Islamist fight against the Jewish state. We must prevent it by all possible means.
For three decades, the Shiite militia has been largely responsible for the misfortunes of the Lebanese and the destabilization of the Middle East. In no country in the world does a militia dictate to a sovereign and independent state or to an army. Quarantining Hizbullah will therefore turn the page, get rid of the heavy burden, and put an end to the daily terror. It will be a great relief to the Lebanese people so that they can finally live in peace and coexistence with the State of Israel. Of course, this will depend on Iran, the firmness of the American president, and Western guarantees, but above all on strong Israeli deterrence. For each violation, the IDF must respond without hesitation or pity.
The ceasefire will be monitored by the Quintet.2 French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot praised France’s decisive involvement in securing the agreement: “This is a success for French diplomacy, and we can be proud of it.” Barrot stressed France’s essential role, thanks to its historic and privileged ties with Lebanon, a country formerly under its mandate.
France will therefore play a leading role in monitoring the agreement; it will be responsible for supervising its implementation and ensuring stability along the Blue Line border. It is also clear that France will bear the primary responsibility in the event the truce fails and hostilities resume.
The Realities of the Ceasefire Agreement
The truce is certainly not ideal, but it is essential for the Israeli villagers living along the border. They lived until now under the daily threat of rockets. It should be noted that the arrangement concluded with Lebanon does not concern Syria, or the Iraqi and Yemeni Shiite militias, and therefore the IDF will always have a free hand to launch raids.
Diplomatically, the ceasefire in Lebanon allows for a campaign against the ICC arrest warrants, avoids a binding and unanimous resolution in the Security Council, and relieves an embargo on arms and munitions ordered from the United States. This lull is temporary and fragile, but it could lay solid foundations for consolidating good neighborly relations with Israel’s Arab neighbors, particularly with Saudi Arabia. The truce allows for the reduction of operational missions by the IDF, finally giving leave to thousands of reservists, allowing the security situation in the West Bank to be controlled and attacks to be thwarted, and, as a priority, focusing all efforts on the release of the hostages and achieving a pragmatic and viable solution to the humanitarian problem in Gaza.
It will also be easier to strengthen our relations with Egypt and especially with the Palestinian Authority at a time when Mahmoud Abbas, 89, is having a difficult time facing his succession.3 Hamas has now failed to secure the support of Hizbullah and the help of Iran. The Palestinian Islamist movement is isolated in the Arab world.
In the international context, this truce is also logical and wise because it comes on the eve of Donald Trump’s installation in the White House. Since his re-election, Benjamin Netanyahu has had five fruitful telephone conversations with him. For the time being, they agree on the way forward.
Therefore, Israel has every interest in showing its diplomatic skills and good intentions rather than proving its military capabilities and demonstrating a belligerent image. The experience of the West in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq and the conquest of Beirut by IDF tanks in 1982 have taught that it is impossible to overthrow regimes by force of arms or completely eradicate a religious movement or a fanatic ideology.
On all these levels, the truce could be beneficial to Israel, provided of course that it is applied to the letter. A violation by Hizbullah or other terrorist organizations would lead the IDF to react strongly and in this case, no international authority will be able to reproach Israel over the legitimacy of the raids. Iran and Hizbullah must understand that the truce is only a test on the ground and not an agreement from a position of weakness. A ceasefire remains the best possible solution to avoid the worst.
Faced with tensions and threats near and far, international pressures, the boycott, and the isolation of Israel, it is time to change the rules of the game: to pursue a coherent policy and a bold strategy, taking into consideration only the interests of the State of Israel and the security of its population.
The ceasefire agreement is not an imposed peace treaty. Israel is currently in a position of strength that can dictate the course of action, and guarantee stability in the north of the country for many years to come. A long-term lull will avoid the unnecessary presence of our soldiers in the Lebanese quagmire with all its consequences and repercussions on the entire Israeli society.
Israel must seize all opportunities and levers and intervene quickly in the event of a violation. This time, Israel would have the legitimacy and support of the Trump administration to intensify ground operations and air strikes, particularly against Iran.
Finally, the agreement with Lebanon could endanger the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The situation on the ground is becoming more complicated with the conquest of the strategic city of Aleppo by Sunni Islamist rebels. The fall of Bashar al-Assad worries Israel and the West. What will be the strategy in the face of the new jihadi front? Israel must be vigilant in the face of a complex issue.
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Notes
- Since the beginning of the Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, the air force has struck more than 12,500 Hizbullah targets, including 360 in Beirut. The IDF has destroyed 70% of the drones, 150 weapons depots, and dozens of tunnels and forts. The booty includes 12,000 explosive charges, 13,000 rockets and missiles, and thousands of computers, documents, and communications equipment. Dozens of Hizbullah fighters are currently being held in Israel.
- The five states are: The United States, France, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
- The security cabinet has extended for one year a waiver allowing Israeli banks to cooperate with Palestinian banks. They were threatened with paralysis.
