On a cold winter morning in January 2023, King Abdullah II of Jordan met with an Israeli security delegation. Abdullah, composed and restrained, dressed in a gray military coat and a red-black Bedouin scarf, stood by a regional border map at his army’s general headquarters in Amman. Before him sat Israeli intelligence chiefs and senior officials who had come for a secret meeting. With characteristic quiet, the king gazed at the map and whispered:
“I walk with you among the flames, barefoot – but you must understand that every step burns my feet here at home.”
This statement encapsulates the delicate balance Jordan tries to maintain: a strategic partnership with Israel and the West – facing hostile public opinion, Iranian infiltration from the east, and a domestic Islamist resurgence. It reflects Jordan’s dual status – a country teetering on the edge in both regional and international arenas, torn between its alliances with Israel and the West and growing threats from Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Between Israel and Iran: A Shift in the Threat Landscape
Iran has lost much of its influence in Syria and Lebanon and is now seeking new routes to restore its “ring of fire” around Israel. Jordan, naturally, becomes a prime target. Jordan’s long border with Iraq (111 miles or 179 km) stretches from the Jordan-Syria-Iraq triangle in the north to the Jordan-Iraq-Saudi Arabia triangle in the south.
Despite Jordan’s efforts to monitor this border – including military reinforcements especially during periods of instability in Iraq (e.g., ISIS’s rise) – there is significant concern in the Hashemite Kingdom about the growing presence of pro-Iranian militias at the border. These groups may use Jordanian territory for attacks on Israel or destabilize the border.
Since 2003, Iran has deepened its influence in Iraq, making it a key link in the “Shiite Crescent.” Although Iranian control over Shiite militias has weakened since the 2021 conflict with Israel, ties remain close and potentially restorable. The most threatening pro-Iranian Iraqi militias include:
- Al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) – an umbrella group funded and trained by Iran.
- Kataib Hizbullah (Iraq) – one of the closest and strongest militias to Iran in Iraq.
- Harakat al-Nujaba – receives arms, money, and intelligence from Iran.
- Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq – a powerful Shiite militia with strong Iranian ties.
These militias have also started building relationships with their traditional Sunni enemies in Jordan – particularly with elements tied to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Muslim Brotherhood Movement: A Domestic Threat
Iran’s strategy to rebuild its “ring of fire” overlaps with the ideological expansion of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Once mainly supported by Palestinians, the Brotherhood has also gained traction among traditional Bedouin tribes, threatening the Hashemite regime’s stability. With about 70% of Jordanians of Palestinian origin, support for the movement is both religious and nationalist.
Operating under the legal framework of the “Islamic Action Front” (IAF), the Brotherhood has become the kingdom’s largest opposition force. King Abdullah responded with harsh measures – office closures, arrests, bans on foreign funding, and limits on political activity – triggering internal backlash, especially in tribal regions and universities. Although suppressed, the resistance continues, especially among youth.
Relations with Israel: Vital but Tense
Jordan is resource-poor but threat-rich. With a GDP of only $50 billion (as of 2024) and a population of about 11 million (excluding Syrian refugees), Jordan lacks natural resources like gas, oil, or water. However, it sits in a highly sensitive geopolitical location between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
Its 1994 peace treaty with Israel has evolved into a “marriage of interests.” Though Jordan often takes strong anti-Israel stances in international forums (e.g., the Arab League, UN), reality tells a different story. Jordan depends on Israel for natural gas, water, and intelligence cooperation. Israel provides Jordan with hundreds of millions of cubic meters of water annually and frequently thwarts Iranian plots near Jordan’s eastern borders.
Frosty Relations: A Dangerous Embrace
Despite close security cooperation, King Abdullah’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cold, even hostile. The two have avoided public meetings since 2018. Abdullah criticizes Israel’s conduct on the Temple Mount, particularly the visits of Jewish worshippers.
Queen Rania is openly critical of Israel, calling its policies toward Palestinians “barbaric” and “inhumane” in UN speeches and global media. These tensions create a complex reality: close intelligence coordination paired with public diplomatic alienation.
Unlike his father, King Hussein, who had mutual respect with Yitzhak Rabin, Abdullah’s ties with Netanyahu are strained and frequently disrupted by public statements and political maneuvers.
Palestinians in Jordan: A Cross-Generational National Challenge
Since 1948, Jordan has governed a large Palestinian population, making the Palestinian issue a constant domestic challenge. Any Israeli-Palestinian friction – from Gaza wars to tensions in Jerusalem – sparks immediate reactions in Jordan: protests, speeches, and sometimes violence.
Jordan’s control of the Islamic Waqf on the Temple Mount gives it a central role in Jerusalem but also exposes it to sharp public criticism if it is seen as not adequately defending the mosque.
Thus, Jordan is not merely a neighbor of Israel – it mirrors the turbulence of Israeli-Palestinian politics.
What Should Israel Do?
Given Jordan’s fragile status, Israel should reinforce its security and economic ties with the kingdom, but with clear conditions:
- Enhanced Economic and Military Aid: Especially in Jordan’s periphery, where anti-Western sentiments grow. Offer mutual incentive packages – expanded gas and water exports, cross-border industrial zones (e.g., in Jericho or the Jordan Valley), joint infrastructure projects – in exchange for Jordan moderating its behavior in international institutions like the UN, Arab League, and UNESCO.
- Open Cooperation Against Iran: Include joint drills, air defense, and regional intelligence sharing.
- Jordan’s Role in Gaza Reconstruction: Focus on education, religion, and healthcare institutions.
- Strategic Role in Holy Sites: Recognize Jordan as a partner in managing Jerusalem’s religious sites while preserving full Israeli sovereignty. Empower Jordan’s Waqf role in exchange for reduced anti-Israel initiatives in international forums.
- Joint Educational & Academic Initiatives: Create Israeli-Jordanian research centers on climate, water, agriculture, and renewable energy, possibly with EU funding. Such partnerships help dismantle anti-Israel narratives, especially among Jordan’s intellectual elites.
- Humanitarian Cooperation: In regions like Syria, Gaza, or Africa – with Jordan leading and Israel supporting behind the scenes – to boost Jordan’s global image and reduce its need to gain “points” by condemning Israel.
- Strengthen Ties with Non-Palestinian Allies: Especially Bedouins and monarchy supporters – through regional aid, education, and water investments, even via agricultural NGOs or EU/US initiatives.
- Encourage Modernization in Jordan: Through international funding, tech consulting, and training in areas like water, agriculture, and biotech – to build internal successes and reduce reliance on external threats for national unity.
- Publish Semi-Official Reports on Positive Cooperation: Highlight success stories – life-saving operations, security coordination, agricultural innovation – to counter the narrative that Jordan is merely “dragged along” by Israel.
Jordan in 2025: A Country Walking a Tightrope
Jordan is a discreet partner of Israel, yet a loud opponent in the international arena. A traditional monarchy battling religious extremism beneath the radar. Resource-poor, yet geopolitically rich.
Jordan has clearly chosen the moderate Sunni axis – cooperating with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the West while openly opposing Iran. Yet the political, economic, and demographic pressures grow daily.
Jordanian intellectual Dr. Ahmad Sultan described it well:
“Our kingdom is like a bird’s nest on the edge of a cliff – all the winds of the Middle East blow upon it, yet it continues to build, twig by twig, hoping the next storm won’t break its foundation.”
The key is not to corner Jordan but to offer it a dignified way out – gently yet firmly. Israel must understand that its alliance with Jordan is not a given, but it is a strategic asset on multiple levels: geographically, intelligence-wise, and perceptually.
