Senior diplomatic officials explain the close relationship between President Donald Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as stemming from two principal factors.
The first is the personal rapport between the two leaders and Trump’s well-known preference for dealing with strong leaders who exercise firm political control.
The second is a broader strategic shift in the U.S. administration’s thinking, which increasingly views Turkey as a regional actor capable of assuming some of the roles Israel has traditionally played, particularly in managing Middle Eastern affairs and engaging with Arab states concerned about Iranian influence.
Within the administration, there is growing recognition that renewing the confrontation with Iran through the same methods employed in the past is unlikely to produce different results. Even a broader military campaign could exact a high political, economic, and military cost on the United States.
Consequently, Washington is exploring the possibility of relying more heavily on regional partners, chief among them Turkey, rather than depending almost exclusively on Israel.
Turkey’s Bid for Regional Leadership
Despite its longstanding rivalry with Iran, Ankara has no interest in a military confrontation with Tehran, nor does it seek to establish a strategic alliance with it.
Instead, the two countries maintain a quiet competition for regional influence while preserving areas of mutual interest that require cautious management.
According to diplomatic sources, Turkish policymakers believe that the Gulf states made a strategic mistake during the recent war by relying primarily on the United States and Israel.
Turkey now seeks to capitalize on the changing regional landscape to establish itself as the leading power of the Sunni world and as the dominant center of influence in the Levant, not only vis-à-vis Iran but also in competition with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Although President Erdoğan has sharply criticized Israel since the October 7, 2023, attack, the Turkish opposition has largely remained confined to the political and media spheres. Ankara has neither initiated military confrontation with Israel nor challenged Israeli operations in Syria, and it has also restricted Hamas’ military activities from Turkish territory.
Senior Israeli officials assess that the United States seeks to strengthen the Lebanese state as a force capable of imposing order and preventing Hizbullah’s resurgence.
At present, Washington believes that Turkey, either directly or through Syria’s new government under Ahmad al-Sharaa, could play a significant role in achieving that objective.
At the same time, the U.S. administration has no intention of completely sidelining Saudi Arabia from the Lebanese arena. Nevertheless, Israeli officials believe that any expansion of Turkish influence in Lebanon and Syria would inevitably come at Riyadh’s expense.
On July 9, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by telephone with President Trump, and Israeli-Turkish relations were among the issues discussed. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu raised “the gravity of President Erdoğan’s and his associates’ statements questioning the legitimacy of the State of Israel.”
Israel is also increasingly concerned by the possibility that the United States may approve Turkey’s request to purchase F-35 stealth fighter aircraft and F-110 engines for Turkey’s next-generation indigenous fighter jet, the KAAN.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly appealed directly to President Trump to block the proposed sale, arguing that it would undermine Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME). Simultaneously, Jerusalem is lobbying members of Congress from both parties to prevent congressional approval of the deal.
Israel’s defense establishment is also preparing for the possibility that these efforts may fail. In that event, Jerusalem seeks to ensure that Turkey receives a less advanced configuration of the aircraft, while the Israeli Air Force continues to operate the most sophisticated version.
In parallel, Israel is requesting a comprehensive American compensation package that would include additional precision-guided munitions, advanced weapons systems, expanded security and technological cooperation, and U.S. limitations on Turkey’s military entrenchment in Syria.
Turkey: Israel’s Next Strategic Challenge
Senior security officials in Jerusalem increasingly believe that Iran’s weakening has elevated Turkey to the position of Israel’s principal strategic competitor in the Middle East.
In their assessment, Turkey possesses a large and capable military, a rapidly expanding defense industry, NATO membership, and a growing ability to project military and political influence across the region.
Moreover, Israeli officials believe that anti-Israeli sentiment is not confined to Erdoğan’s government but is shared by substantial segments of Turkey’s political opposition and broader public.
The Main Arenas of Competition
The rivalry between Israel and Turkey is unfolding across several theaters simultaneously.
In the Palestinian arena, Israel accuses Turkey of supporting Hamas by hosting some of its senior leaders and providing the organization with political and financial backing.
Jerusalem also opposes any future Turkish participation in an international force in the Gaza Strip and is increasingly concerned by Ankara’s growing influence in Jerusalem and within the Palestinian political system.
Israel is equally wary of Turkey’s expanding role in Syria. It is working to prevent Ankara from establishing permanent military bases and air defense systems there, fearing that such deployments could constrain the Israeli Air Force’s operational freedom.
Competition has also intensified in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey opposes the growing security and energy cooperation among Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, while Israel continues to deepen its strategic partnership with Athens and Nicosia and advance regional energy initiatives without coordinating with Ankara.
Senior Israeli security officials are closely monitoring the continued expansion of Turkey’s defense industry, its growing military deployments in Syria and elsewhere, and the rapid modernization of the Turkish Air Force.
According to senior diplomatic assessments, Israel and Turkey are not currently on the verge of direct military confrontation. Nevertheless, they are engaged in a long-term strategic contest over the future regional order in the Middle East.
Israel seeks to preserve its position as the region’s dominant power through military superiority, its special strategic alliance with the United States, the expansion of normalization agreements with Arab states, and the continued marginalization of the Palestinian issue within the regional agenda.
Turkey, by contrast, is working to shape a new regional order in which it serves as the principal center of power in the Sunni world, expands its influence throughout the Levant, and becomes a central architect of the emerging regional system.
As these competing strategic visions increasingly collide, the rivalry between Jerusalem and Ankara is likely to intensify, emerging as one of the defining geopolitical fault lines of the Middle East in the years ahead.
