In Tehran, Trump’s Weakening Is Celebrated as if It Were a Wartime Victory

13 Aban Brings the Past Into the Current War

13 Aban, the anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, is not being treated this year merely as a historical commemoration. Iranian media are linking it directly to current events. Claims of military achievements in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. midterm election results as presented in Iran, and the confrontation with Washington are all cast as part of a decades-long struggle. The commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Ground Force argued that recent developments show military power alone does not guarantee victory and that the United States and Israel have again miscalculated. Tasnim extended the historical parallel from Jimmy Carter to Donald Trump, depicting Iranian resistance as a recurring challenge for American presidents.

The midterm elections were incorporated almost immediately. Iranian media reported that Democrats had gained control of both houses of Congress, and Tasnim described the result as a severe defeat for Trump’s camp. The Iranian coverage should not be treated as independent verification of the election results. Its significance lies instead in how those results are presented to readers in Tehran: Trump’s domestic difficulties are portrayed as evidence that pressure on Iran also carries political costs in Washington.

The timing gives that message additional force. A revolutionary anniversary nearly five decades old becomes a way to connect the present confrontation with the founding history of the Islamic Republic. The United States remains the adversary, Iran remains the country refusing to yield, and the current crisis becomes another stage in a much longer conflict. The harder question emerges outside the ideological and security coverage, where economic and social pressures tell a less coherent story.

In Hormuz, the Statements Are Certain, the Facts Less So

The strongest military claims on the morning of November 4, 2026, came from the Revolutionary Guards. According to an official statement published by Tasnim, four tankers were hit and caught fire, two additional vessels were stopped, and another U.S. MQ-9 was shot down at 4:30 a.m. The statement and the Revolutionary Guards’ claim of responsibility are clear. The scale of the events is not. As of the time of this review, no accessible external confirmation had been found that fully matched the number of vessels involved, the extent of the damage, or the claim that the drone had been shot down. The announcement of a significant military achievement should therefore be distinguished from what can currently be independently verified.

That uncertainty became more apparent when an authorized Iranian website later reviewed conflicting accounts surrounding Qeshm. Iranian claims described American assets being shot down or captured, while U.S. reports referred to strikes against military infrastructure. Neither side’s account produced a complete independent picture of the targets, damage, or casualties. Iran is clearly seeking to demonstrate that it retains the initiative and can continue imposing costs, but the precise events on the ground remain only partially documented.

This uncertainty also matters for diplomacy. Mohsen Rezaei said the previous evening that American responses to Iran’s seven demands remained insufficient and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz depended on a complete response. At the same time, a claim attributed to Qatari mediation sources said Washington had agreed to a draft memorandum, although without a primary document this cannot be treated as confirmed. The diplomatic channel therefore remains active while military pressure continues. Neither track has displaced the other.

Against the Language of Victory, Assistance Is Losing Value

The contrast becomes sharper in the economy. Parliament’s Social Welfare Committee opposes abolishing food assistance cards, while acknowledging that the credit already approved has lost purchasing power because of inflation. The government is considering eligibility tests based on car and home ownership, income, and bank card spending, although the criteria have not been finalized. For the state, this is an attempt to target assistance more precisely. For families whose cards already buy less food, tighter eligibility rules may simply feel like another reduction in support.

This is the central difficulty of assistance programs during high inflation. The nominal value of the benefit can remain unchanged while its practical value declines each month. The government can maintain the Kalabarg program formally, but if the basket of goods it purchases keeps shrinking, continued eligibility provides diminishing protection. The debate over who qualifies is therefore taking place while the benefit itself is losing value.

The government is also trying to manage fuel shortages through lower consumption. The target under discussion is to reduce daily gasoline use from about 133 million liters to roughly 120 million by winter, partly through wider use of compressed natural gas. Yet Iran itself is expected to face gas shortages during the winter, making the proposed alternative dependent on another constrained energy source.

The problem is more serious given the acting oil minister’s statement that strikes had removed roughly a quarter of Iran’s gas production capacity and that reconstruction was still underway ahead of winter. The figure has not been independently verified on a technical level. But if it is even approximately accurate, the energy problem is no longer simply economic. The government is seeking to reduce gasoline consumption by increasing reliance on gas precisely when it is trying to restore a significant portion of gas production capacity.

The Dollar Hits a Record as Healthcare Costs Come Under Scrutiny

The currency continues to reflect the uncertainty. According to a market report published this morning, the cash dollar reached approximately 274,000 tomans the previous day, a new record according to the newspaper. The figure is from November 3 rather than a movement recorded during the morning itself, but it provides important context. As the local currency weakens, imported medical equipment, raw materials, spare parts, and basic goods become more expensive, while maintaining subsidies requires greater government resources.

The same pressures are visible in healthcare. The Health Ministry is discussing a future pilot program to provide insurance coverage for home treatment for one or two chronic illnesses, acknowledging that such care is currently too expensive for many lower-income households. For now, however, this remains a pilot planned for next year rather than an existing entitlement. At the same time, the head of the Nurses’ Organization is demanding greater transparency over how healthcare and insurance funds are spent.

The recurring problem is not a shortage of plans or targets, but uncertainty over financing and implementation. In an environment of rapid inflation and currency depreciation, delays carry their own cost. A service introduced a year from now may cost considerably more than anticipated today, while assistance approved in the budget may buy substantially less by the time it reaches recipients.

Women’s Rights and Internet Access Carry Economic Costs Too

The discussion about women appeared this morning from a less conventional angle. A legal analysis of reform to the mahr, the sum of money or property stipulated as part of a marriage, argued that domestic work creates lost economic opportunities for women and that changing the existing mechanism cannot be limited to reducing financial liability. According to the expert, complementary protections are needed, including insurance, retirement rights, and a fairer division of property. No new law has been approved. Rather, the argument shifts attention from how much a man must pay in the event of divorce to the long-term economic cost of unpaid domestic labor.

That question becomes more consequential as the cost of living rises. Issues once discussed primarily as family or religious disputes increasingly have direct implications for economic security. Who worked outside the home, who remained at home to care for the family, who accumulated pension rights, and who is left without income after divorce matter more when wages and public assistance are themselves losing value.

Internet disruptions are producing similar secondary costs. The National Foundation for Computer Games acknowledged that it had prepared in advance for the possibility of an internet shutdown during the judging of a professional event. The detail is small but revealing. A civilian technology industry is no longer merely asking whether internet access will remain available. It is incorporating possible disconnection into routine planning. The economic damage therefore extends beyond the hours of an actual shutdown to the resources businesses and institutions must devote to preparing for unreliable infrastructure.

The Establishment Acknowledges Hardship but Draws a Political Boundary Around It

The authorities’ approach to protest follows a similar pattern. The judiciary announced the arrest of a woman who, it claimed, had participated in nighttime gatherings and attempted, with assistance from a foreign actor, to redirect “legitimate public demands” in a hostile direction. No independent evidence for the alleged foreign connection was provided, so that claim remains the authorities’ account rather than a verified fact. More revealing is the acknowledgment that legitimate grievances exist at all.

This distinction allows the state to recognize economic and social pressure while limiting the political conclusions that may be drawn from it. Inflation, shortages, and declining purchasing power can be acknowledged as genuine problems, while attempts to turn those grievances into a broader challenge to the political order are treated as a security issue. Targeted remedies and coercive measures can therefore operate simultaneously.

The nuclear debate shows a related dynamic. No new technical data were published this morning on stockpiles, enrichment levels, or facilities. Instead, discussion centered on whether the IAEA protects Iranian facilities or contributes to international pressure, and whether nuclear weapons would strengthen deterrence or increase Iran’s economic and security costs. A reader survey asking whether Iran should possess a bomb cannot serve as a measure of public opinion, but it does show that the question itself has entered more open public discussion.

Desk Conclusion: Military Claims Meet Domestic Constraints

The central feature of 13 Aban this year is the effort to connect several developments that would otherwise belong to separate stories. Hormuz demonstrates Iran’s ability to use force. Political developments in the United States are presented as evidence that pressure also carries costs for Washington. The revolutionary anniversary gives both a historical context.

Outside the security coverage, however, the immediate problems are more concrete. The government is still debating eligibility for food assistance whose value is already declining. Plans to reduce gasoline consumption depend partly on gas production that has itself been damaged. The dollar has reached a new record. Home healthcare remains unaffordable for many lower-income households. Healthcare professionals are questioning how existing funds are spent, while a civilian technology industry is preparing for possible internet shutdowns.

None of this means the government’s message has ceased to resonate. The establishment remains capable of connecting current events to the revolutionary history of the Islamic Republic and presenting continued resistance as an achievement in itself.

The difficulty is that military and political claims are increasingly being tested against everyday conditions.

If Hormuz represents a victory, the public will eventually expect it to produce greater stability. If pressure on the United States is succeeding, the continued rise of the dollar becomes harder to reconcile with that success. And if the war demonstrates Iran’s resilience, that resilience will ultimately also be judged by whether food assistance buys enough, gas reaches homes in winter, healthcare remains affordable, and internet access continues to function as basic infrastructure rather than a daily uncertainty.

That gap between external strength and domestic strain is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.