Senior Israeli security officials assess that Iran and Hizbullah will seek to undermine the implementation of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon. They view it as a significant diplomatic setback for both Tehran and Hizbullah. According to these officials, the agreement has yet to be translated into reality on the ground.
The central question is whether the plan can be implemented successfully. If successful, this would dismantle the “Unity of the Fronts” principle, which Iran has aimed to enforce on both the United States and Israel.
Details and timing of the agreement remain undisclosed, but senior political officials say it is a U.S.-led initiative that contradicts the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
It also weakens Vice President J.D. Vance’s policy approach, while simultaneously reinforcing Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s stance: the Lebanese government alone is Lebanon’s sovereign authority and the only legitimate body entitled to determine the country’s future and its relationship with Israel—not Iran.
A senior political source says this undercuts Tehran’s strategy.
Through the memorandum with Washington, Iran aimed to show that Lebanon is a proxy state controlled by Hizbullah.
The framework agreement challenges Iran’s narrative by explicitly recognizing the Lebanese government in Beirut as the sole legitimate authority over Lebanon’s affairs, rather than Tehran.
Senior security officials say the agreement gives Israel U.S. and Lebanese legitimacy to maintain its security buffer zone in southern Lebanon, protecting communities along the northern border.
Under the agreement, Israel keeps control of the buffer zone until it is demilitarized and Hizbullah is pushed north of the Litani River. Only then will Israel withdraw to the internationally recognized border.
The burden of proof, they say, now rests squarely on the Lebanese government and the Lebanese Armed Forces. The key question is whether the Lebanese military will confront Hizbullah, remove its forces from the designated pilot areas, and dismantle its terrorist infrastructure.
This remains uncertain. Israeli defense officials estimate that at least half of the Lebanese Army’s officers and enlisted personnel are Shiite Muslims. Additionally, Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Rodolphe Haykal is widely viewed as sympathetic to Hizbullah.
The U.S. is expected to closely oversee the agreement’s implementation, particularly monitoring the Lebanese Armed Forces and their commander.
As part of the agreement, the Lebanese military is expected to receive a $30 million U.S. assistance package designed to strengthen its operational capabilities. In addition, the Lebanese government will receive another $100 million in humanitarian aid to help recover from the damage caused by the war, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Senior security officials urge caution. For now, the agreement is a political document between Israel and Lebanon.
Its real test will be its implementation by the Lebanese Armed Forces, who, for decades, have avoided confronting or disarming Hizbullah.
Officials note this is not a final settlement. Thirteen land border disputes between Israel and Lebanon remain unresolved.
Under Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah exploited disputed areas to escalate tensions, accuse Israel of occupying Lebanese land, and justify its ongoing armed status and claim to be Lebanon’s “defender.”
