Senior security officials say Hamas has already formulated a clear strategy for preserving its rule in Gaza, both militarily and civically.
According to them, Hamas is not troubled by the establishment of the so-called Technocrats Committee that is supposed to manage civilian life in the Strip. From Hamas’s perspective, the committee poses no real threat to its authority. Its twelve members are residents of Gaza with families living there, which means Hamas can, at any given moment, exert pressure on them and on their relatives to achieve its objectives.
Another reason is that the Technocrats Committee intends to continue managing daily life through the existing governmental and municipal bureaucracy in Gaza, which numbers around 40,000 employees.
These officials currently receive their salaries from Hamas, and there is no intention to dismiss them from their posts.
This reality allows Hamas to continue ruling from behind the scenes. Accordingly, Hamas openly declares that it will transfer all civilian authorities to this committee.
The Military Dimension
On the military front, Hamas has no intention of fully disarming. On January 29, senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk told Qatar’s Al Jazeera network that under no formulation did Hamas agree to surrender what he called the weapons of resistance. He said that Hamas agreed under the Trump plan to a general framework for ending the war, but that the issue of weapons had not yet been addressed in negotiations.
Security officials assess that Hamas is now attempting to draw Israel and the United States into negotiations over disarmament to buy time.
Hamas is relying on Qatar and Turkey to help soften President Trump’s position so that it can retain light weapons and anti-tank arms. The prevailing assessment is that Hamas would ultimately agree to hand over several hundred short-range rockets, hundreds of rifles, and explosive devices, and to expose some of the tunnels under its control west of the yellow line. At the same time, it would keep other weapons, many tunnels unknown to Israeli intelligence, and lathes and equipment enabling the clandestine production of rockets and additional weapons.
Hamas’s military wing is estimated to include around 30,000 militants. Not all of them will be expelled from the Strip. Many are expected to remain in civilian clothing, continue receiving salaries from the organization, and operate covertly.
The Civilian Dimension
Today, Hamas derives much of its strength from Gaza’s civilian society, which still largely supports it and its ideology, despite the enormous disaster brought upon the population on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched Operation Al Aqsa Flood.
According to Israel Defense Forces sources, Hamas continues to grow stronger due to the massive flow of humanitarian aid trucks entering the Strip each day, as well as an ongoing smuggling industry operated through civilian contractors.
This includes the smuggling of cigarettes, tobacco, agricultural products, mobile phones, and dual-use materials that can be used to manufacture explosive devices.
Hamas’s power is expected to increase further once the Rafah crossing is opened to the movement of people and goods. Hamas imposes taxes on every shipment entering Gaza, generating revenue that it channels into military buildup.
Currently, about six hundred trucks enter Gaza each day, roughly four thousand two hundred per week, four times the volume required according to United Nations benchmarks.
After the reopening of the Rafah crossing, the volume of goods entering the Strip is expected to increase over time. Senior Israeli military officials have recommended that the political leadership not approve the entry of goods through the Rafah crossing, warning that Hamas uses this channel to smuggle weapons into Gaza.
The prevailing assessment within Israel’s security establishment is that Hamas seeks to implement the Hizbullah model from Lebanon in Gaza. Under this model, Hamas would continue to exercise effective control on the ground without assuming formal civilian or governmental responsibility.
Leading this strategy is Ali al‑Amoudi, a member of Hamas’s political bureau and a close associate of Yahya Sinwar, who has effectively become the figure managing the political bureau’s operations in the Gaza Strip.
Senior security officials warn that if Israel does not itself demilitarize the Strip, Hamas will continue to rule from behind the scenes through the weapons at its disposal for at least several more years.
In practical terms, Hamas plans to remain in Gaza with thousands of armed militants alongside public sector employees in key positions within the civilian system, thereby ensuring its full control.
Israel’s leverage over Hamas is limited in the absence of American backing for a move that would involve entering Hamas-controlled territory and forcibly disarming the organization.
Israel plans to remain along the yellow line and to prevent the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip until Hamas’s disarmament is completed.
