In recent years, Turkey has emerged as one of the most active military powers in the Middle East and Africa, establishing bases, deploying troops, and forging new military alliances across a wide geographic expanse – from Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, northern Iraq and Syria to Somalia and Qatar and from Libya to Chad. This extensive deployment reflects Ankara’s evolving strategy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, aimed at reshaping Turkey’s role as a regional and even transregional power. However, these moves are not without risk, particularly as they bring Turkish forces into proximity – and potentially into conflict – with other regional players, including Egypt and Israel.
Strategic Geography: Where Turkey Has Boots on the Ground
Iraq and Syria:
Turkey maintains a strong and expanding military presence in northern Iraq, primarily justified by its fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Dozens of outposts and bases in the Kurdistan Region enable Turkish forces to conduct cross-border operations. Moreover, Turkey maintains military outposts (including tank battalions and special forces) in northeast Iraq, facing Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah. In Syria, Turkey controls parts of the north, including Afrin, Jarabulus, and parts of Idlib, through both its military and Syrian rebel proxies. Ankara’s core goals in Syria are to contain Kurdish autonomy, curb refugee flows, and maintain influence in any future political settlement. Following the fall of Bashar Assad, Turkey has posed itself as the protector of the new regime led by Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa against Iranian subversion meant to topple the newly established Syrian regime.
Qatar:
Since the Gulf crisis of 2017, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt imposed a blockade on Qatar, Turkey swiftly dispatched troops to the newly established Tariq bin Ziyad base near Doha. This deployment, backed by a defense treaty, allowed Turkey to deploy 4,000 troops in Qatar and was symbolic as much as strategic – an assertion of Turkey’s role as a Gulf power broker and protector of its ideological ally.
Sudan and Somalia:
In Somalia, Turkey operates its largest overseas military base, Camp TURKSOM, near Mogadishu. It serves both as a training facility for Somali soldiers and a platform for Turkish soft and hard power projection in East Africa. In Sudan, Turkey’s brief attempt to develop the island of Suakin (which used to serve as the Ottoman fleet headquarters in the Red Sea) into a logistics and tourism hub with possible military applications was cut short after the fall of Omar al-Bashir, though Ankara remains active diplomatically and commercially.
Chad:
Though more limited in scope, Turkish troops are deployed in the two mains cities of eastern Chad, Abeche and Faya Largeau, along the border with Sudan. Turkish engagement in Chad reflects Ankara’s broader Sahel strategy where Turkey provides military training and humanitarian assistance and has increased its diplomatic presence. These efforts complement its expanding influence in the region as part of a wider African policy.
Cyprus:
Turkey maintains over 30,000 troops in Northern Cyprus, an enduring symbol of the unresolved conflict since the 1974 division of the island. While not part of the recent military expansion, the Cyprus deployment underscores Turkey’s long-term military entrenchment in the Eastern Mediterranean and its readiness to assert claims – particularly over maritime boundaries and hydrocarbon resources.
Strategic Motivations Behind the Expansion
Turkey’s military footprint is driven by a mix of ideology, security concerns, economic interests, and geopolitical ambition.
- Geopolitical Prestige and Neo-Ottomanism:Erdoğan’s foreign policy has often invoked historical ties, particularly with former Ottoman territories, (such as the claims in Syria and Iraq) as part of a vision to restore Turkey’s influence. This rhetoric is matched with strategic moves that signal Turkey’s desire to act independently of NATO and the West.
- Ideological Alliances:Turkey increasingly aligns itself with Islamist-oriented regimes or movements, as seen in its support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and ties with Qatar. This ideological posture places it at odds with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and increasingly, Israel.
- Security and Counterterrorism:Ankara justifies many of its deployments as necessary for combating terrorism, especially the PKK and its Syrian affiliate, the YPG. Preventing the emergence of autonomous Kurdish regions along its southern border remains a top priority.
- Energy and Economic Access:Military deployments also serve economic goals – protecting maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, securing access to African markets, and enabling Turkish contractors and investors to gain preferential positions in developing regions.
Risk of Confrontation: The Israel-Turkey Equation in Syria
Among all its deployments, Turkey’s presence in northern Syria carries the highest potential for friction with Israel. While Israel and Turkey have taken steps toward normalization in recent years, they remain strategically suspicious of each other. Turkey’s support for Hamas, its criticism of Israeli policies in Gaza and Jerusalem, and its ambitions in Syria are significant flashpoints.
Israeli air operations in Syria – primarily targeting Iranian assets – frequently occur in airspace close to Turkish-controlled areas. As Turkey deepens its entrenchment through new military outposts and intelligence activities, the risk of accidental or intentional encounters rises. Moreover, Turkish cooperation with anti-Israel actors, directly or indirectly, could draw Israeli responses.
Having said that, a direct military clash between the two is unlikely in the short term. Both Ankara and Jerusalem are skilled at managing tensions through diplomatic channels and share overlapping interests in regional stability. Indeed, information that leaked to the press reported negotiations conducted by Israel and Turkey in Azerbaijan resulting in an approved division of regions of influence, thus calming the tensions between the two countries. Turkey seems to have accepted the right of Israeli self-defense in case a threat appears in the areas where Turkish troops are to be deployed. Still, any deterioration in the Gaza situation or renewed Turkish activism around Jerusalem could alter the assessment.
Ambition Meets Uncertainty
Turkey’s military deployments across the Middle East and Africa represent a bold recalibration of its regional role. While many of these moves are tactically sound in the short term – expanding Turkish influence, protecting security interests, and bolstering prestige – they also carry strategic risks. Overextension, potential blowback from local populations, and entanglements with other powers – including Israel – could complicate Turkey’s ambitions.
Ultimately, Ankara’s power projection strategy reflects both confidence and anxiety: confidence in its rising capabilities, and anxiety over regional shifts that could marginalize Turkish interests. How well Turkey balances ambition with restraint will shape its role in the emerging regional order.
