In October 2022, Farhad Razavi, a 29-year-old from northern Tehran, stood in the heart of Argentina Square – one of the symbolic epicenters of the protest movement that erupted following the death of Mahsa Amini. He didn’t chant slogans, didn’t hold a sign. He simply stood there, literally, in tense silence, staring at a police officer who stared back at him. Farhad despised the Iranian regime – the religious coercion, the oppression of women, the Revolutionary Guards junta that had stolen his future. But deep inside, he carried an ancient warning: if he were to fall, no one would remain to feed his sick mother, no one to pay the rent. It wasn’t fear of death that held him back, but fear of life without him.
Nearly three years have passed since that turbulent autumn. In June 2025, following a series of Israeli strikes deep within Iran – which inflicted lethal damage on military, nuclear, and governmental infrastructure – the Islamic Republic found itself humiliated, surprised, and, above all, exposed. For a few days, it seemed as if something had cracked – a hidden line of immunity had been crossed, revealing a regime that appeared confused, battered, and possibly even collapsing.
But the regime’s recovery was faster than expected. The Revolutionary Guards regained control through a ruthless wave of arrests, intense information filtering, and an influx of funds from the “shadow economy” – an elaborate network of smuggling, monopolies, and economic loyalties that sustains tens of thousands of people, including many who are not necessarily regime supporters, but are economically dependent on it. The Iranian public, although sick and tired of the ayatollahs and the system, did not flood the streets. Fear and apprehension – even after the regime had been exposed in its nakedness – still prevailed.
This is where a critical distinction must be made regarding the objectives of the operation: between paralyzing the regime – significantly impairing its ability to cause harm militarily, ideologically, and through terrorism – and toppling it entirely. The former can be achieved through overt means: military action, sanctions, international isolation, and diplomatic pressure. But the regime’s collapse is an entirely different goal, one that requires a multilayered strategic operation, and above all – patience, sophistication, and consistent action.
Western policy – particularly that of the United States – must distinguish between means and ends. The true goal is not yet another improved version of the 2015 nuclear deal from which President Trump withdrew – a deal that at best delays Iran’s nuclear bomb by a few years. Negotiations must not resume from the point they were paused before the strikes. The recent round, led by Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, was charged, doomed from the start, and highlighted the gap between a Western rational, interest- and utility-based approach, and a jihadist ideological vision based on a concept of eternity – a dream that culminates in the holy grail of destroying the Zionist entity and imposing Sharia law on the West.
If negotiations resume, they cannot be limited to “preventing enrichment” – they must include new, deep, and clear baseline conditions: dismantling of missile and UAV infrastructure, halting support for terrorism, and the gradual opening of the economy to transparency and fair trade. This time – the failure of negotiations must not lead to a “worse deal,” but to a clear and unequivocal message: the American bombing was merely a preview. Next time could be the regime’s end.
However, it is important to remember: regime change does not happen in headlines, but between the lines. Open threats that unite Iranians around their leadership are counterproductive – as often happens when external threats enter the public discourse. Real regime overthrow must be conducted covertly: collaboration with opposition elements, support for subversive information networks, and funneling resources into centers of internal unrest – from universities to persecuted ethnic communities.
Israel, in its current state, cannot and should not lead a regime change operation in Tehran on its own. Its role is to weaken the regime’s capacity for harm in the immediate term – a necessary, but insufficient action. Only deep and strategic cooperation with the United States can drive a historic shift. The responsibility lies first and foremost with the United States – due to its power, influence, and ability to build an international coalition around this vision. Israel has laid the groundwork for the United States to create a new visionary compass – to set a new coordinate system that could influence the world for generations.
The conclusion is clear: no more attempts to “bend” the regime with carrots and sticks, but instead the creation of a new horizon in which the very existence of an extreme, violent, and dark regime is no longer accepted as a given, but recognized as a problem that must be solved.
As Iranian poet Simin Behbahani wrote:
“They tied our eyes, but not our thoughts.
They conquered our streets, but not our future.”
That future depends not only on the courage of Farhad and his friends, but on the determination of the West not to allow tyranny to continue dictating the agenda of the Middle East and the entire world.
