Summary
In light of escalating tensions between Hizbullah and Israel, Arab media report that Hizbullah is actively preparing for a possible full-scale military confrontation expected in August. These preparations include logistical aid distribution and warehouse setup, particularly in northern Lebanon, including some Christian areas. Hizbullah’s actions are independent of Lebanese state institutions, revealing the group’s defiance of the government and its increasing influence. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and Israel are frustrated by Lebanon’s weak stance on disarmament and the renewal conditions for the UNIFIL mandate. The Lebanese government is under pressure to take a definitive stance against Hizbullah, with a failure to do so potentially inviting international sanctions and legitimizing Israeli military responses.
Another war between Israel and Hizbullah could take place at any moment. According to various Arab sources, reports have emerged in the Arab media that Hizbullah is taking proactive steps in preparation for a potential full-scale military conflict with Israel. Hizbullah leaders are also making combative declarations as they anticipate renewed clashes. These steps include the distribution of aid and supplies, with the Lebanese media speculating that the conflict could erupt as early as August.
This development coincides with growing frustration in both the U.S. and Israel over Lebanon’s lukewarm response to a proposal by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack. It also comes amid uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate, set to expire in August. Both Israel and the U.S. oppose an automatic renewal unless UNIFIL is granted the authority to fully implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates the disarmament of Hizbullah and the assertion of Lebanese state authority over southern Lebanon.
The ongoing war of words between Israel and Hizbullah—intensified by Hizbullah’s open refusal to disarm, arguing that doing so would effectively hand over its arsenal to Israel—is stoking fears of a large-scale civilian displacement. These concerns are particularly acute in southern Lebanon, expected to be the primary battleground in any future conflict.
According to reports from Lebanese and Arab media (yet to be independently verified), Hizbullah is establishing four logistical warehouses in Minieh, Batroun, Akkar, and Jbeil—two of which are located in predominantly Christian areas (Batroun and Jbeil). To facilitate aid distribution, Hizbullah is delivering mattresses, blankets, and medical supplies to Shiite-majority villages in the northeastern regions of Lebanon, particularly in Akkar (Habshit, Qarha) and the Koura district (Bahboush, Banahran, Zgharta Al-Matawleh). Vans and pickup trucks have been observed transporting these supplies to the designated warehouses, as part of broader preemptive war preparations.
However, support for Hizbullah’s efforts appears mixed. Sunni-majority municipalities are reportedly hesitant to cooperate, while Alawite-majority municipalities face difficulties due to the ongoing burden of hosting Syrian refugees.
As tension builds, the Shiite south of Lebanon is rife with rumors of an imminent Israeli military strike on Hizbullah targets in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and northern regions. The Baalbek-Hermel area in the Bekaa Valley is also experiencing heightened anxiety, fear, and unrest. Widely considered a strategic stronghold for Hizbullah, the region is believed to house much of the group’s missile arsenal, making it a likely focal point for Israeli military action.
As has been the case in past conflicts, Hizbullah’s preparations remain largely uncoordinated with official Lebanese government agencies, underscoring the state’s limited role and further illustrating Hizbullah’s status as a dominant, paralyzing force within the country. In defiance of recent moves by the Lebanese central bank to dismantle Hizbullah’s financial infrastructure—specifically its parallel banking entity, “Al-Qard al-Hassan”—the group announced the opening of four additional branches, increasing its total from 36 to 40, despite difficulties in cash transactions.
In response to mounting American and Saudi pressure, the Lebanese government is expected to convene on Tuesday with the goal of reaching a unanimous decision on the disarmament of Hizbullah. According to Lebanese law, such a consensus is required to enable the government to take formal action. Hizbullah and its political ally Amal are expected to oppose the move vehemently, raising fears of a potential return to civil war. Failure to reach a decisive resolution would undermine Lebanon’s credibility in the eyes of the U.S. and its allies, prolong the sanctions regime, and potentially provide justification for Israeli military operations against Hizbullah.
FAQs
What is prompting Hizbullah’s recent military preparations?
Hizbullah anticipates a renewed military conflict with Israel, reportedly expected in August, and is proactively distributing supplies and setting up logistics hubs to support affected populations.
How is Hizbullah preparing for the potential conflict?
The group has established four supply warehouses and is distributing essential items such as mattresses, blankets, and medicines to Shiite villages. It is also expanding its parallel banking system, “al Qard al Hassan,” to ensure financial continuity.
What is the Lebanese government’s position on Hizbullah’s actions?
The Lebanese government is largely sidelined and uninvolved in Hizbullah’s preparations. However, it is under U.S. and Saudi pressure to disarm Hizbullah, with an upcoming decision expected to clarify its stance.
Why is the UNIFIL mandate important in this context?
The UN peacekeeping force’s mandate, set to expire in August, is contested. Israel and the U.S. want its renewal to include authority to enforce Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for disarming Hizbullah and reasserting state control in southern Lebanon.
What are the implications if the Lebanese government fails to act against Hizbullah?
Failure to act could erode Lebanon’s credibility internationally, lead to intensified sanctions, and provide justification for Israel to carry out military operations against Hizbullah positions across Lebanon.
