This article was first published in Israel Hayom on April 17, 2026.
The ceasefire imposed on Israel in the Lebanese arena is nothing more than the halting of a fourth war in the past forty years, without removing the threats and without addressing their root causes. This is not an accidental failure, but a direct result of a flawed doctrine: the attempt to replace military decision with “conflict management.”
As the well-known Arab proverb says, “He who neglects his youth will be tormented by his old age.” Israel neglected the foundations of classical warfare and now faces the consequences of that erosion.
Operational dissonance: brilliant tactics, frozen strategy
The IDF achieved impressive successes in the south, capturing, clearing, and establishing a significant buffer zone up to the Litani River, but failed to effectively contend with the rocket threat. Even if Hizbullah retains only about twenty percent of its arsenal, this still amounts to tens of thousands of rockets, and the organization continues to demonstrate strong command and control despite the ضربs it has sustained.
The IDF and the political echelon have consistently avoided proactive operations aimed at dismantling Hizbullah’s grip over Lebanon as a whole. While fighters clear border villages, the main centers of power in Baalbek and Dahieh remain relatively immune from ground operations.
The peak of this lack of focus was reflected in the only significant deep ground operation, the attempt to recover the remains of Ron Arad. With all due respect to the moral obligation, this was a completely unnecessary operation that yielded no strategic result, apart from exposing elite forces to unnecessary risk.
The problem is not that the war was halted, but that it was conducted without a guiding concept aimed at decisive victory. We relied on painful firepower, but as experience shows, pain is temporary. Without decisive victory there is no submission, and without submission there is no victory that can be translated into a stable political achievement.
From analysis to action
The architecture for the next victory operates on several levels. First, there is a rare diplomatic window. The world’s attention is focused eastward on Iran, and it is clear that any outcome there will affect Lebanon. Paradoxically, international protests against IDF operations in Lebanon remain relatively weak and come mainly from Western Europe. At the same time, Israel still enjoys strong American support, despite the ceasefire imposed by Washington.
To ensure that this ceasefire is not merely a prelude to a fifth war, Israel must abandon its defensive posture of attrition and adopt a strategy of dismantling and reconstruction. The required steps are a direct response to the failures we have experienced: integrating military, economic, and diplomatic actions into a decisive blow. All efforts must be focused on achieving a clear outcome.
Dahieh: organizational, social, and financial core
The southern suburb of Beirut is not merely a Shiite stronghold, but a multi-layered center that includes leadership, propaganda, community institutions, and at times financial infrastructure. This is where Hizbullah is most deeply embedded as an organization within society, not just as a fighting force. Targeted ground action against its military and economic nodes could accelerate its collapse.
The Bekaa: logistical depth, recruitment, and border connections
The Bekaa Valley is less a political symbol and more a depth zone that includes Shiite social presence, logistics, and at times funding and smuggling routes. Hizbullah’s deepest roots are not only in the south, but also in the Bekaa.
Baalbek-Hermel
Hizbullah’s strategic rear includes training centers and weapons storage, the main supply route from Syria along the Damascus to Baalbek axis, a predominantly Shiite population, and missile production labs and rocket depots.
The Syrian-Lebanese border: the Qusayr-Hermel corridor
These are key transit points for weapons smuggling from Iran via Syria. Blocking this corridor would completely sever the organization’s supply chain.
Service networks: the deepest source of legitimacy
Hizbullah maintains its power not only through weapons but also through services, welfare systems, credit, local mediation, and patronage mechanisms. This is why physical strikes on its strongholds do not necessarily translate into a loss of public support, even after military weakening. Israel must directly target these welfare networks, both economically and militarily.
1. Creating a northern pincer
This requires cooperation with the United States and Syrian forces hostile to Hizbullah in order to generate military pressure from the east and north and signal encirclement, or alternatively a ground entry by the IDF into these areas.
2. Aggressive diplomatic warfare led by the United States and supported by Gulf states
This includes an uncompromising demand to outlaw Hizbullah and dismiss its ministers, close the Iranian embassy, neutralize the negative role of Nabih Berri as a mediator, and replace Lebanese army commander Rodolphe Haykal, who cooperates with the organization.
3. Undermining internal legitimacy
This involves mobilizing the Druze community in Israel to delegitimize Walid Jumblatt, a supporter of Hizbullah, alongside covert encouragement of a Lebanese Shiite alternative that would challenge Hizbullah’s monopoly.
4. Arab pressure levers
Israel should work with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to apply direct economic pressure on the Lebanese government by offering investments only in exchange for the dismantling of Hizbullah, with no concessions beforehand.
5. Return to a doctrine of decisive victory
The IDF must be transformed back into a maneuvering force that is sophisticated, rapid, and lethal, capable of penetrating deep enemy infrastructure above and below ground and defeating the enemy in dense terrain, rather than wearing down its own forces in static battles. Israel must stop seeking an image of victory and begin pursuing actual victory. Attempts to buy quiet through money or technology will fail against an enemy that views time as a tool.
As Winston Churchill put it, “History is not only the story of the wars that were fought, but mainly of the wars that could have been prevented, had we only dared to decide them in time.” Lebanon 2026 is a warning sign: those who refuse to decide when they can will be forced to fight when they must, under far worse conditions.
